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America on Shaky Ground, Part 6

To be effective participants in our democracy, a dedication to reality is essential.  Said dedication is difficult amid the relentless political theater and complexity of the issues we face.  But try we must.  Energy policy, Russian aggression, and the West’s ability to respond are inextricably linked. To understand, let’s begin with what we know to be true, raise questions and finally, determine if we can draw any conclusions.  

FACTS

• Readily available, affordable energy is the backbone of a society. Energy is to society as oxygen is to humans. Every industry, business and citizen rely on energy to function.  Every product brought to market requires energy to produce.  A sound energy policy is essential for economic and national security.   

• If energy prices increase, the price of goods and service will also increase, i.e., inflation.  Steep inflation has and will continue to jeopardize our economy.

• Many factors impact energy prices.  Supply and demand are key as are the games nations play with supply to manipulate pricing and/or advance agendas such as climate change.  Regulatory policy and uncertainty also impact prices.  

• Biden administration energy policy is driven by the belief that fossil fuel emissions are the cause of our warming planet.  Energy policy is therefore geared to reduce fossil fuel production and increase renewable energy.  Biden attacked the fossil fuel industry immediately.  For example, he revoked the permit for the Keystone pipeline on day one, temporarily suspended the issuance of oil and gas permits on federal lands and waters and most recently, during the Russia/Ukraine crisis, FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) modified approval requirements to include climate considerations for interstate natural gas facilities and pipelines.  The new guidelines will ensure such projects are far more difficult if not impossible to permit.

• While the environment is an essential pillar of any energy policy it is critical to understand that renewables such as wind and solar are currently unreliable and unable to meet US energy demand.  Until a solution for long term storage of energy is invented to overcome the variable nature of weather and/or nuclear energy is increased dramatically, we are stuck with fossil fuels if we wish to satisfy current demand.  Please review the charts in this article that outline energy consumption by source.  

• In February 2022 the NRC (Nuclear Energy Commission) rescinded extension permits for two functioning nuclear plants in Florida and Pennsylvania. In January 2022, the NRC rejected the application to build a reactor in Idaho. Shuttered nuclear plants typically are converted to gas-fired plants which have higher emissions. Rescinding permits that were issued under a previous administration is a sure fire way to dampen investment at time when we need nuclear energy to reduce imports. For more information please read this article.

• Germany provides a clear example of a climate based energy policy that neglected to properly balance environmental, economic and national security concerns and ignored the reality of renewables.  “Germany embarked on Energiewende in 2010 with the goal of eventually making Germany independent of fossil fuels. The idea was to phase out oil, coal, and natural gas to allow for drastic reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Since 2009, Germany has spent over a hundred billion euros on solar and wind energy, but carbon dioxide emissions did not decline over that period.  Source.  Germany also began a process to shutter their nuclear power plants with the remaining two plants scheduled for closure at the end of this year.  How has this worked out for Germany?  “Currently, Russia provides Germany with 55 percent of the natural gas, 50 percent of the coal, and 35 percent of the oil consumed by its inhabitants.” Source.  Germany supported Nord Stream 2, a pipeline that would transport Russian gas to Germany.  Nord Stream 2 will be a significant economic boon to Russia, filling its coffers to rape and pillage Ukraine, threatening Europe’s stability. Germany has since halted the process to certify the pipeline but has declined to enact any Russian sanctions that jeopardize its energy supply. .  

• Unlike demand, US energy output has not rebounded to prepandamic levels.  This imbalance pushes costs up.  It is difficult to discern the cause. Some say it is a result of Biden administration policies intended to restrict supply.  Some say it is a lack of investment due to the regulatory atmosphere created by Biden policies.  The Biden administration blames OPEC, Russia, big oil and more recently, the conflict in Ukraine.  Still others blame Covid. 

• The United States achieved “energy independence” for the first time in 2019.  This means that our net exports exceeded imports.  It does not mean that we produced all the energy we consumed.  We continue to import energy.  Becoming a net exporter was fueled in part by regulatory changes and the hydraulic fracking boom.  Prior to the end of the Trump administration our imports exceeded exports due to the havoc lockdowns wreaked on supply and demand.  We continue to import more than we export under Biden.  

• Soon after Biden took office Russia began amassing troops on the Ukrainian border.  This article from April 2021 states that troop movement to the border had started “weeks” prior to publication.

• Putin has repeatedly stated over the years that there will be significant consequences if Ukraine joined NATO.  Biden and Harris have repeatedly used language supporting Ukraine’s addition to NATO.

• While implementing steps to restrict fossil fuel production at home, in May 2021, Biden waived sanctions on the company building Nord Stream 2.  Also in May 2021, U.S. imports of oil and refined petroleum products from Russia increased 23 percent to 844,000 barrels a day from the prior month, according to the Energy Information Administration.  In August 2021 Biden requested OPEC and Russia increase the supply of oil and gas production to offset higher energy prices in the US.  

• While US imports from Russia increased to their highest historical level in 2021, It is important to note that the US has been importing oil from Russia for years.  Russian exports currently represent roughly 7% of total US 2021 consumption.  We import oil from many countries.  Top exporters to the US are Canada, Russia and Mexico.  For a detailed dive into the data, click here.  For more information consider this US Chamber of Commerce article, this article from Oil Price.com or summary from Institute For Energy Research.

• “Russia’s sales of oil and natural gas far exceeded initial forecasts for 2021 as a result of skyrocketing prices, accounting for 36% of the country’s total budget.”  Russia’s energy exports are a significant source of funds and finance Russia’s brutal attack.  Source.     

• Almost a year after signs of impending Russian aggression began, there is finally a bipartisan push to cut energy imports from Russia.  However, the way some suggest it be done is counterproductive.  Elizabeth Warren stated “I think that means it should all be on the table including banning the import of Russian oil, not just here in the United States but among all of the nations.  We can protect ourselves, we can support ourselves, we can keep our economy going without fossil fuels.”

QUESTIONS

• Why have so many NATO countries financed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?  

• Why didn’t the US and NATO turn off Russia’s money machine and seek alternate means of energy supply in 2014 after Russia invaded Crimea? Or if not then, as soon as the troop build up began on the Ukrainian border?  Considering Russia’s history, Russian aggression in Ukraine had a high probability.  Why was it ignored for so many months?

• Knowing Putin’s “red line” regarding NATO expansion, how much did Biden’s NATO/Ukraine rhetoric enflame the situation?  Were those overtures serious suggestions to Ukraine to join NATO or did they have another purpose?  Did Biden and Harris consider Ukraine’s entrance into NATO worth the potential for war?  If so, why? This opinion piece offers an interesting perspective. 

• The timeline above raises serious questions.   Let’s recap.  On Biden’s first day in office, he takes steps to hamper US energy markets at a time when the country was reeling from Covid and the disastrous results of the lockdowns.  Russia amassed troops on Ukraine’s border shortly thereafter.  While Russian troops were in place, Biden increased oil imports from Russia and greenlights Nord Stream 2 which will aid Russia economically and increase their control over Europe.  Biden then requests OPEC and Russia to increase supply.  Meanwhile Biden suggests Ukraine join NATO and actively takes steps to reduce oil, gas and nuclear production in the US.  Days before Russia’s invasion, FERC made it more difficult to build infrastructure to transport natural gas and the NRC rescinded extension permits for two nuclear reactors. This is strikingly bizarre behavior for an American president.  Whose side is he on?  Were Biden’s actions an invitation to Russia, is he mentally incapable of evaluating the consequences of his actions, or is he hamstrung by the ideology of his masters?  Who are his masters?

• How did Biden’s and his son’s financial arrangement with Ukraine impact this situation?  How did the false and relentless Trump Russia collusion narrative impact our relationship with Russia?  How does the Ukraine “phone call” and subsequent Trump impeachment play into this?  The opinion piece referenced above attempts to address these questions as well. 

• Undermining the fossil fuel industry under the guise of climate policy without a viable alternative actively in place seems foolhardy in the extreme.  Now that we are confronted with the clear consequences of this policy, why hasn’t the administration changed course and taken steps to increase energy production at home?

• Why is the Biden Administration also undermining the nuclear industry? It is incomprehensible. Nuclear is the only way to reduce emissions and satisfy our energy needs.

• While unplugging Russia’s money machine seems to make sense, imagine what will happen to energy prices and overall inflation if we eliminate 7% of our energy supply overnight.  Has Biden’s energy policy restricted our ability to react to Putin effectively and therefore compromised our national security?  We import more energy than we export, have massive debt, spiraling inflation and fiscal responsibility at the Federal level is nonexistent. This WSJ editorial explains why cutting our Russian imports could largely be a symbolic gesture and have no meaningful impact on Russia.

• Does the anticapitalistic “degrowth” movement inform Biden’s energy policy?  Would this explain Biden’s attempt to reduce fossil fuels and nuclear without an alternate means of supply?   

CONCLUSIONS

We can easily conclude that Russia’s actions are horrific. The people of Ukraine will suffer greatly.  We can also conclude that Biden’s and Europe’s feckless energy policies have helped finance this carnage and hampered our ability to respond in the most effective manner.  We know that countries like Germany are so dependent on Russian oil and gas they are incapable of meaningful sanctions without tanking their economies. We know many months elapsed with no discernible strategy from Biden or Europe to thwart this invasion or improve our leverage.

In addition to the complexities inherent in the energy industry, there are far too many unanswered questions for us to fully understand how we came to this juncture in history. We will not learn the truth from talking heads or politicians.  Their rhetoric is political theater and feels like manipulation, the goal of which is unclear but instinctively troubling.  Collectively we must demand answers and seek true motive.  

Russia is not the only aggressor.  Ukraine is the classic shiny object to deflect attention.  Elizabeth Warren clearly demonstrated she would use this situation to advance a drastic climate agenda and it appears many in the administration share her view.  Biden attempts to sweep consequences of his administration’s policies under the Ukrainian rug.  These are the manipulative strategies of weak leaders.  It is high time we view this latest assault on our economic and national security as an act of aggression against the American people.  Equally important, we must ask why.  

And finally, we can conclude that our current leaders, whoever they may be, are woefully inadequate to navigate the difficult times ahead. Can we trust them to do now what they have neglected to do for the last year?  No. Will they dramatically change course to strengthen America at home and abroad with sound fiscal and energy policies that balance environmental, economic and national security with available and evolving technology?  No.  Their goals are not our own.  They have put America on dangerously shaky ground.  

SHAKY GROUND SUMMARY

Below is a summary of destabilizing factors addressed in this and previous articles in the America on Shaky Ground series.  

• Part 1 – Division and distrust caused by the prohibition of gathering.
• Part 2 – Division and distrust caused by categorizing women and men into victims and oppressors.  
• Part 3 – Division and distrust caused by racial segregation via victim/oppressor ideology.
• Part 4 – Destabilize the populace by undermining the constitutional right of self-defense. 
• Part 5 – Propagation of false narratives designed to destabilize the populace and consolidate power.  
• Part 6 – Destabilize US economic and national security with unsound energy policies.  

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