Author: Sue Seboda

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Letter to County Executive Marc Elrich and Members of the County Council

May 22, 2020

Dear County Executive Elrich, Members of the County Council and Dr. Travis Gayles:  

Balancing the impacts from a highly contagious virus and the shutdown is a difficult task and we appreciate your efforts to do so.  While I understand the council’s primary goal is to save lives from covid unfortunately the decision to prolong the shutdown will put other lives at risk.  While a letter could be devoted entirely to the negative impacts of the shutdowns (one of which is attached for your reference) suffice it to say that many people and businesses are seriously suffering.  The data suggests that a balanced, targeted approach is possible. 

During the press conference Wednesday, Mr. Elrich said his top two metrics for lifting the stay at home orders were total case numbers and ICU utilization rates.  Mr. Elrich suggested that death rates are not going to be changed much by testing and contact tracing.  He also stated that death rates are the hardest numbers to change.  How can any metric have a higher priority than who dies from the disease?  Does this suggest Mr. Elrich believes that regardless of what we do, the vulnerable will die from covid?  Eventually we will all die of something, but a targeted approach can help protect the vulnerable from dying of covid and allow the rest of us to get back to work.  

Who is at the greatest risk of dying from covid and might benefit the most from an effort to lower death rates? Nursing home patients.  This group comprises 74% of the 465 total deaths in the county.  But please also note that 85% of all deaths are folks over 65.  Who has a low risk of dying from the disease? People under 65 especially those without underlying health conditions.  Only 0.007% of county citizens under 65 have died from covid with or without underlying health conditions. What other name does this low risk group go by?  The workforce.  

Only total case and death numbers are provided in the dashboard which is not helpful for understanding risk or evaluating a targeted strategy.  Deaths of nursing home patients and those over 65 with serious underlying conditions should be eliminated from any trends that will impact the decision to reopen.  While the lives of nursing home patients are as important as any other life, these folks are not the ones who are shopping and operating businesses.  Plus nursing homes are highly specialized environments that are not found in general office and retail.  If it is not possible to segregate the data this way, please add charts to the dashboard for under and over 65 daily fatality rates and you will find as I did with Maryland data that the trend has been flat for over a month.  

Data charts that only include nursing home stats should also be created to guide decisions and strategies to protect patients and staff.  This segregated information will also allow the citizens and county to monitor results. 

Hospitalizations are a key metric.  The dashboard states that in order to reopen we must achieve 14 days of acute bed utilization rate of 70% or less of the total number of acute beds.  We have had 0 days under 70% for acute beds.  Are we to assume that if nothing changes we will have at least 14 more days before we can reopen?  Please note that the top utilization rate for both covid and noncovid patients was 83% and only 6 days since April 30 have been over 80%.  In other words, we have been able to accommodate all patients since the beginning of the pandemic with beds to spare. 

Only a notable spike would cause a shortage of acute care and ICU beds.  If a spike were to occur, when would that be?  Well after reopening.  Therefore waiting another 14 days to reopen achieves nothing but negative health, emotional and financial impacts to the citizens.  Rather than passively watching the numbers, is there an approach that balances the needs of all of the citizens utilizing advance planning?  For example, is it possible to transfer patients between hospitals to balance the load or develop a plan to increase beds immediately in the event of a spike?  

Antibody testing and other situations such as the aircraft carrier Roosevelt suggest as many as 50% of covid positive people could be asymptomatic and far more of the population has been infected than indicated by current testing.  This suggests that increased testing will result in increased cases for some undetermined period of time.  While I completely support the County’s new programs to increase testing, even if 5% of the population is tested monthly, many folks could still be walking around unaware they have covid.  The only way to manage that is through physical distance, good hygiene and masks when within 6’ of another.  Why should small businesses be held hostage while testing ramps up when the same avoidance practices must be instituted regardless?  Considering that county essential workers are not required to quarantine when they have been exposed to covid, the health department must have high confidence that these practices will stop the spread.  Let’s extend this confidence to the entire workforce and reignite demand in the county.  

The statement in the meeting Wednesday that when stay at home orders are lifted, the county might only allow stores to do curbside pickup was extremely troubling.  Certainly all the members of the council have noticed that people are not staying home.  They are out shopping in big box stores.  Does science dictate that we are only safe in big corporate retail and at greater risk in small independent stores?  No. Science does tell us how to stop the spread and small business owners are very capable of maintaining physical distance and instituting appropriate hygiene standards. Therefore, why should government officials decide which businesses live and which die?  The County should stop giving big box retailers a crushing advantage over our small businesses and open fully.  

Every day matters. Each minute we remain closed, the consequences will pile up exponentially from deferred medical treatments, unemployment and financial devastation.  Suicide rates have increased as has substance abuse, physical abuse and depression.  The fact that we now have food lines in the county speaks volumes.  Small businesses are genuinely suffering which will have its own long term health impacts.  Many businesses will not survive.  Has the county examined what will happen to its tax base if small business is decimated? 

Regardless of the council’s good intentions, continued stay at home orders will not deliver us from covid.  We implore the council to proactively balance the needs of all the citizens and implement a targeted approach that protects the vulnerable and allows the healthy to assume personal responsibility and get back to work.  Any business that can maintain physical distance guidelines should be allowed to open fully.  The data supports that action and the new guidance from the CDC regarding the transmission of the virus should give all of us more confidence to move forward.  And finally, please obtain input from the people of the community who will explain how both covid and the shutdown have impacted their lives and livelihood.

Sincerely,

Sue Seboda

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A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

Sue Seboda, May 7, 2020

Let’s examine the curve that Governor Hogan has used to guide reopening decisions.  Does it make sense?  Here is my latest dive into the data and it is disturbing at best.

As of May 7, 2020 nursing home patients accounted for 57% of all corona virus deaths in Maryland. While there is much discussion of these numbers, we should take this one step further and also ask why any decision to reopen should be based on data that includes nursing home stats. While the lives of the elderly are just as important as any other life, they are not the folks who will restart this economy. Ideally two curves would be examined, daily death data for people over and under 65 net of nursing home stats. Unfortunately Maryland has not provided that data and is unlikely to do so. The best we can do is use the info that Maryland posts daily and create charts for under and over 60 and under and over 70.

To that end, I gathered the daily data by age group from April 1 to the present and with simple math determined the number of deaths each day.  With that information, data was collated and charts created.

The trends speak volumes. The under 60 and 70 charts are not the ominous curve that Governor Hogan has used to maintain economy crushing stay at home orders. Instead we see flat death trends for those under 60 and a very slight uptick when include deaths between 60-69. The frequently discussed curve can only be found for those over 70. The bottom line? For the majority of the workforce, the curve has been essentially flat since at least April 15.

What do we learn from these charts? The first thing is that we have failed the elderly in nursing homes. The second is that Governor Hogan has based his decisions on the wrong curves. This data suggests that we should have changed course some time ago and put a serious strategy in place to protect the vulnerable and let the young kickstart this economy. But no, Hogan never looked at things this way or, if he did, he ignored it.

We will debate forever why Governor Hogan and others ignored commonsense strategies in favor of extended lockdowns even after they knew that the much feared curve only applied to the elderly. We will wonder why they never shared this information with the citizens. We will wonder why they simultaneously crushed small business, added untold debt and failed to protect the vulnerable. What a total failure of government. And how disgraceful that we let them do it.

Details

  • Even though the curve is flat for younger people, the corona virus is still with us. At every age, we must continue to maintain physical distance, use proper hygiene and stay away from the vulnerable.
  • Maryland only releases number of cases and deaths by age group.  I did not chart cases because the testing rate has increased so it is not an apples and apples comparison.  In my view, since the hospitals have capacity, the only measure that should guide decisions is how many people live and die from the disease.
  • On April 15, Maryland changed how they accounted for deaths because there was a reduction. From that point on Maryland included confirmed and “probable” deaths. For this reason I assume that death counts prior to April 15 included probable deaths.  Because probable deaths are too ambiguous, the charts begin on April 16 and only include confirmed deaths.  
  • Please note that the data Maryland publishes daily is silent on comorbidities.  Therefore the data includes folks who died with or without a serious underlying condition. This is important because many have said we should stay shutdown because a large percentage of the population have a serious underlying condition. This does not appear to be a valid argument because the data shows that there is a flat trend for those under 60 regardless. Between 60 and 70, I suspect underlying conditions play a larger role but without more data it is difficult to speculate. Ideally, we would know how many people died in each age group with a comorbidity. 
  • It would also be excellent if we knew how many people with underlying health conditions survived corona virus.
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Open Letter to Governor Hogan, April 14, 2020

You have a very difficult job. We understand and appreciate your effort. But now is the time to agree that the curve has been flattened. We cannot keep the State closed in a quest to eliminate the curve. If you and other politicians insist on an extended shutdown, you can add millions of ruined lives to your resume. The economic destruction is and will be enormous to both private industry and government. Why is corona virus the only illness exempt from a reasonable risk analysis? Where is the perspective? Next will politicians eliminate sugar from the food supply to combat diabetes? Ban all environmental factors that are known to cause cancer? Force all citizens to get a flu vaccine every year? Quarantine all people susceptible to HIV until a cure is found? Permanently evacuate all areas where mosquitos carry malaria? Ban suicide? Ban motor vehicles? Ban humans? The absurdity is beyond comprehension.

Unlike some other governors, you understand how economies function and the destruction occurring each day Maryland remains closed. So why are you not taking concrete steps to open immediately? Is this about federal funds? What can be more important than the lives of all of the constituents? The fastest way to increase the State’s coffers is to open back up.

Politicians are destroying this country. Please be bold, stop the insanity and open. Everyone can wear masks and maintain social distance. Restaurants can reduce seating. Vulnerable people can remain at home. No doubt there are many solutions that creative minds will find if you just let them. The people have a choice. It is time for us to make it.

Yes, sadly, some people will catch the virus. Presumably the hospitals have used the past month to prepare. We mourn for those who have succumbed to this virus and worry greatly for the health care workers on the front line. We must strike a balance, however, between those at risk from the virus and those at risk from shuttering the economy. This is not a case of “money vs lives”. It is “lives vs lives”.

I do have a question that requires an answer. Does the State have the constitutional authority to order a business to close for an extended period of time? And to determine what is an essential business and what is not? And require these businesses to pay taxes while they are closed?

Again, I appreciate the pressure you are under. Imagine what it will be when the Federal government can no longer bail everyone out.  

Sincerely,

Sue Seboda

Annapolis, MD

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Open Letter to the Citizens of Maryland, May 4, 2020

Does someone have control of Governor Hogan?  A big corporate winner in the corona games?  A myopic medical advisor?  His campaign manager?  His words are right but his actions are wrong.  It is perplexing.  

For example, Maryland stonewalled the release of nursing home data until last week.  Perhaps it is because nursing home deaths comprise 55% of the total deaths in Maryland.  While this raises many questions on the management of aggregate care facilities, it also raises a serious question about data.  Hogan has stated he will only reopen after 14 days of flattened or declining hospitalization and death trends.  Which trends?  Trend curves that include nursing home data?  That doesn’t make sense.  Will nursing home patients be on the front line of our economic restart?  No.  Therefore only trends that include the demographics of those who will kick start demand and the workforce should be included.  Nursing home trends should only dictate safety guidelines for nursing homes. 

To that end, Maryland should immediately release case, hospitalization and death trends for people 65 and under, net of nursing home data, with and without underlying conditions.  The citizens have the right to follow the trends that impact their lives.  Aside from evaluating Hogan’s performance, this data will mitigate fear by outlining the actual corona risk to the new frontline assuming proper physical distance and hygiene.  Certainly this is not a novel thought.  It is, however, an important one and it is disturbing that it hasn’t been considered publicly.  

Along these same lines, data from highly specialized environments, such as poultry plants should result in unique safety requirements applicable to those businesses.  Under no circumstances should data from these locations influence the reopening of the rest of the state. 

Governor Hogan stated “there is nothing more important to me than getting our economy and our people back on their feet”. If this were true, why hasn’t he examined the appropriate trends regionally?  Some areas probably already have 14 days of flattening if indeed there ever was a curve.  Could portions of the eastern shore and the west go to phase 2 now with strict guidelines in place?  

A leader whose top priority is keeping citizens safe from both the virus and an economic meltdown would dispense with the benevolent dictator schtick.  His actions are anything but benevolent to small business.  Hogan clearly feels empowered to willfully kill one business over another.  For example, why has Hogan allowed people to buy flooring at Home Depot but not at a small independently owned business?  Why does Hogan insist that you can only buy spice at a corporate grocery store but not at a small business dedicated to spice?  We don’t need 14 days of anything to open these stores up, they should open now.

At this point in the outbreak, a leader dedicated to reopening would also be brutally honest about the consequences of the stay at home orders.  Hogan barely mentions them. Based on what is known now about the virus, if the public balanced current corona risks against the risks of the shutdown, they would demand an immediate, safe opening of all business that can maintain physical distance and/or implement hygiene standards known to stop the spread.  For those who only watch nonstop corona news or avoid all news, let’s hit a few highlights.  Note each item below results in its own cascade of serious additional consequences.  Maryland faces an estimated 2.8 billion shortfall.  Over 30 million unemployed. Loss of life due to delayed health care and suicide. Sharp decline in economic activity and consumer confidence. 401ks in the tank.  A frightening surge in credit card, rent and mortgage defaults. Hotels at 20% capacity if open.  Travel and airline industries crushed. Manufacturing plants shuttered or crippled.  Hospitals hemorrhage cash and lay off tens of thousands jeopardizing our health care industry. Empty storefronts and failed businesses. Restaurants gone. Livestock slaughtered. Troubling international incidents.  Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, plummeted at a 7.6% rate in the first quarter, the most since 1980.  Economy shrank at 4.8% rate in the first quarter.  The reduction in second quarter GDP will likely be staggering. US government set to borrow a record $2.99 trillion in the second quarter. The American dream crushed for many.  The list goes on and on and this is just the beginning.  For those who still claim the demand to reopen is for our convenience you are wrong, it is for our lives, figurative and literal.  

In closing I ask Maryland citizens, does it make sense that a reopen strategy is strongly influenced by what is happening in nursing homes?  Should our reopening be delayed due to outbreaks in highly specialized environments that demand unique safety guidelines?  Should we ignore that the majority of states have begun the process to reopen?  They can’t all be wrong.  Should Hogan have the right to decide which businesses live and which die when either can be safe?  Why should we accept arbitrary edicts that have zero impact on the spread of corona? Does it make sense to delay reopening when commonsense approaches that protect the vulnerable are possible?  Does it make sense to delay when the consequences of doing so present a clear and present danger?  No.  With the curve flattened and hospital capacity sufficient, none of this makes sense which brings me back to the beginning.  Who is in control?  

Details

  • The photo of the slaughtered pigs was posted on facebook.  I removed the poster’s information for privacy purposes.  The airport photo is DCA.  

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Government Gods

April 28, 2020

By Sue Seboda

Open Letter to Governor Hogan

The purpose of this letter is to outline questions and comments regarding the press conference Friday 4/24/20.  Assertions that small business has been a top priority are called into question by your actions.  If equal weight had been placed on the physical, mental and economic health of all of the citizens, a balanced approach would have been pursued.  Evidence of such an approach would have been the creation of a task force on day 1 that represented the viewpoints of not only epidemiologists and the medical community but also business, banking and mental health.  Instead a lopsided, reactionary strategy based on faulty “science” was implemented leaving immeasurable human and financial destruction in its wake.  

This single focused strategy also gave rise to government gods recklessly choosing who lives and dies, who gets a paycheck and who doesn’t. Home Depot is safe but hundreds of other businesses that could manage 6’ spacing are unsafe?  A hair salon can provide services to an essential person with papers but no one else?  Are essential people and businesses somehow immune from covid-19?  Why are all state employees still receiving paychecks when the state’s income has been decimated?  

Missing from the press conference was any discussion of real data. I presume the team is familiar with the studies emerging that suggest infection is far more widespread resulting in a death rate under 1%?  Or does the team focus more on the attacks leveled at these studies instead of the possibilities they suggest?  Has an attempt been made to estimate the actual death rate considering asymptomatic case rates may be 50% or greater?  Let’s assume the death rate is around 0.6% as some suggest.  Would you have supported a complete destruction of demand if we knew this on March 1?  Doubtful. 

But what is done is done.  How do we move forward and protect the vulnerable from the very infectious covid-19 and the rest of us from the government gods?  I am very happy to hear that business minds have now been added to the team because I fear that if it were left to the medical professionals, stay at home orders would be in place until a vaccine was available.  Can commonsense steps be taken to open many businesses now?  Yes. 

A simple approach would focus on the existing demographic data for deaths and ICU admissions.  As of today there are 929 total deaths in Maryland and 551 patients in ICU.  (For perspective please note that that 50,668 Marylanders died in 2018 from all causes.)  In the press conference we learned a high percentage of these numbers represent nursing home patients.  While these lives are as valuable as any other life, people in nursing homes are not the ones shopping and operating businesses.  What about the workforce?  How many of the deaths were people under 65 without underlying health conditions?  Using percentages from various studies this number is probably between 17 and 42 people out of a population of 6,043,000.  

This data suggests government should stop playing god and immediately allow any business to reopen that can adjust to physical distance guidelines.  Protect the vulnerable and allow everyone else to go back to work.  Each individual chooses.  Anyone uncomfortable leaving the house can remain there.  Open public spaces with physical distance guidelines. Phase in the remaining businesses and events as soon as possible based on real data.  Would infections spike?  Probably.  But once again, what is the hospitalization rate for those under 65 without underlying conditions?  Balance this threat against the devastating impact of staying closed another two weeks.   

Every day matters. Each minute we remain closed, the consequences will pile up exponentially.  All lives matter.  Waiting is disaster.  It is absurd to rely on continued federal bailouts.  It’s time to save ourselves both from the virus and the government’s reaction to it. If we start the process now, we will be one day closer to the oft discussed herd immunity and one day further from toxic herd fear.  

During the press conference, the lack of any attempt to dispel fear was disturbing.  Some would suggest that a healthy level of fear aids the government gods in their ability to control people.   How do I know fear levels are sky high and people’s brains paralyzed?   Simply observe how many people wear a mask when engaged in solitary activities.  The fear will subside, however, as the damage mounts.  There will be serious questions.  Even now folks wonder why you listen to federal guidelines when they don’t make sense.  And if commonsense is absent from Maryland’s strategy, it won’t be long before we wonder why we should listen to you.   

Sincerely,

Sue Seboda

Annapolis, MD 

Details

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To Mask or not to Mask

Many, including me, are wondering how to handle the mask edicts from on high.  Are these requirements legal? Do cloth masks work?  This article focuses on the latter question. Below is the CDC guideline:

  • CDC is recommending the use of a cloth face covering to keep people who are infected but do not have symptoms from spreading COVID-19 to others.
  • The cloth face cover is meant to protect other people in case you are infected.
  • The cloth face coverings recommended are not surgical masks or N-95 respirators. Medical face masks are critical supplies that should be reserved for healthcare workers and other first responders, as recommended by CDC.
  • The cloth face cover is not a substitute for social distancing.
  • CDC continues to recommend that people try keep about 6 feet between themselves and others.

The corona virus is approximately .125 micron in diameter.  A micron is a unit of length equal to one millionth of a meter.  That is small.  However, it often travels in biological aerosols from coughing and sneezing which range in size from 0.5-3 micron.  

The N of the much discussed N95 mask means “Not resistant to oil”.  In other words, N95s protect against solid and liquid airborne particles that do not contain oil. The 95 means that it is 95% efficient in blocking down to 0.3 micron particles.  So a well fitted N95 mask will make you feel reasonably confident around someone with corona.  

Surgical masks offer less protection than N95. According to the FDA, “While a surgical mask may be effective in blocking splashes and large-particle droplets, a face mask, by design, does not filter or block very small particles in the air that may be transmitted by coughs, sneezes, or certain medical procedures. Surgical masks also do not provide complete protection from germs and other contaminants because of the loose fit between the surface of the face mask and your face.”

What about cloth masks?  My goal was to look for studies that occurred prior to the pandemic to avoid “studies” that are intended to influence behavior.  I found a study conducted in 2015 by a team from University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam and Beijing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “ The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of cloth masks to medical masks in hospital healthcare workers (HCWs). The null hypothesis is that there is no difference between medical masks and cloth masks.” Not surprisingly rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask group.  In the interest of transparency, please note the study was funded in part by 3M. 

Do cloth masks do anything?  I found a 2013 Cambridge University study which concluded “both masks significantly reduced the number of microorganisms expelled by volunteers, although the surgical mask was 3 times more effective in blocking transmission than the homemade mask.” While a cloth mask may not protect as well as a surgical mask, they do offer protection.

I spoke with a family member who has spent his life studying viruses.  While he is not fond of wearing a cloth mask, he says they are helpful but not perfectly effective.  He believes a big benefit of wearing a mask is keeping your hands off your face.  I also spoke with friends and family members in healthcare. The message was consistent. Masks offer protection. Cloth at the bottom, followed by surgical then N95. Wash hands frequently and do not touch your mask or your face.

So what’s the bottom line?  My initial reaction to the mask edict was “I will wear one when I see every politician wearing one and only if I can pick their fabric”.  After researching, I have modified my opinion and will wear a mask when social distancing (I hate that phrase) is not possible. Surgical masks are my first choice. Would I wear a mask outside biking or walking.  No. When I see masked folks engaged in solitary endeavors, my first thought is they should recalibrate their fear meter and realize breathing fresh air is a good thing.  But who am I to judge?  If it makes someone more comfortable to wear a mask, it might reduce stress and help with immunity. Would I enter a high risk area with a cloth mask? No. I would wear a surgical mask or N95 depending on the situation.

My conclusion is wearing a mask, cloth or otherwise, will reduce the risk. Perhaps on an equal footing is hand washing and not picking your nose. If masks will help get this country open, I am all in.  Heck, I will wear a bunch of them at once. Unfortunately for many of our so called leaders, masks will do nothing to overcome their urge to posture for federal money, pander to their base or use corona as a stepping stone to higher office.  It’s very sad for our country that it’s an election year.  

Details:

  • For references on data and actual studies, please click on links embedded above. 
  • Smart Air Filters has done studies on the efficiency of masks to block particles. I would recommend checking out their site if you are interested in a deeper dive.  They have also have tested various fabrics for their virus blocking abilities.
  • Both Smart Air and Vaniman utilize the 2013 Cambridge study in their material.  In Vaniman’s summary they only included the first sentence of the Cambridge conclusion and neglected to mention that surgical masks reduced transmission by a factor of 3 over cloth masks.  Interesting and a reminder that one always has to go to the source to find the whole story. 
  • N95 masks are not available to the public due to shortages.  Note that FDA approved the use of KN95 masks for healthcare workers.  These masks are often identical to N95 masks and are the “N95 equivalent” for medical usage in China.  According to Vaniman they offer the same filtration as N95 face masks with a rating of 95% at 0.3 Micron.  Vaniman has them available for May delivery if interested.  Comparison shopping might be a good idea. https://www.vaniman.com/product/k-n95-face-masks/
  • Here is the FDA’s guidance on cloth, surgical and N95 masks.  https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/n95-respirators-and-surgical-masks-face-masks.  They do not recommend N95 for the public.  I agree N95s should be reserved for medical personnel if they are in short supply. When N95s or KN95 become available, having some on hand for emergencies is a good idea regardless of what the FDA or CDC says. 

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Hey Nancy and Donald….

By Sue Seboda 4/18/20

Who is coloring your hair???  Are they standing 6’ away with a spray nozzle?  Or perhaps on a platform 6 feet above you, dropping buckets of color on your head?  Or maybe someone filled your gold plated toilet with color and gave you a swirly?

The vast majority of Americans are prohibited from visiting a hairdresser but the shutdown kings and queens are all perfectly quaffed?  We know you have gray hair Donald and Nancy.  How about you Gretchen, you’re 48 and probably have some gray creeping in? Was someone coloring your hair when you released the edict that paint sales were verboten? And let’s not forget all the fear mongering talking heads who paralyzed the country with their high drama and low perspective reporting.  How are you coloring your hair???

Oh I would love to ask these questions directly. But the answers are sadly predictable. “Me, in front of a camera with a botched DIY color job?  Heavens no.  I am so huge.  I am so important.  I am almighty. How could I possibly be subject to my own edicts?  Tsk, tsk you silly girl.”  

While the shutdown royalty are getting their hair cut and colored by the pros, what are we doing?  The panic over roots was palpable. Where to buy DIY color? How in the world to pick a color?  How to even find color? A run started the day the economy was shuttered.  But I got lucky.  My enterprising colorist delivered color to the door with a brush and gloves.  I left an envelop with cash.  Smart.  She saved us an enormous amount of money. Reinstalling all the mirrors I ripped out would have been a notable expense. 

Having the tools is one thing, using them is another.  Considering my proclivity towards making a mess, I figured the only safe place was a gravelly area outside.  As bad luck would have it, that area is also used by the neighborhood animals.  No doubt Nancy would love to join me in the litter box for a girls spa day. I brought a mirror outside, cut holes in a trash bag for my head and arms, mixed the color up and got down to business.  I have not looked at the back of my head and have no intention of doing so.  

Meanwhile Earl had to find a solution to avoid that homeless look going around. I think he got the last set of clippers in the world. You can’t even buy manscape clippers.  So I gave Earl my first ever buzz cut.  The first time was a bit scary.  The second time I left a little message on the back of his head….

Anyway, listen up all you who worship at the alter of false models, stop with the “we are all in this together” BS.  Clearly that’s not true. Your hypocrisy cheapens us all.

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Talking Bananas

Many years ago I wandered into the local vege/fruit store and found myself in a conversation with the bananas.  Sure I always talk to bananas at 7:00 am.  After a bit of verbal foreplay, the bananas then asked me to pick up one of their own. Why not, I said. The banana hijinks started slowly but each request was a bit more outlandish than the last.  Then the bananas asked that I use their friend as a microphone.  Warning, warning, warning. Then the bananas nicely suggested I put that banana in my mouth as if it were the most natural thing to do.  Their coaxing tone conveyed a hope beyond hope that I would stop laughing and comply.  Oh please, please, make my day, the bananas intoned.   I did not make the bananas’ day.  While I had been happy to play along, no good could come from sticking that banana in my mouth.  With much hilarity, people came out of their hidey holes and announced “You are on Candid Camera”.  It was one of the funniest 15 minutes of my life.  

I had not thought of my TV debut in years.  Then corona hit and the talking bananas came to mind.  My subconscious was onto it.  The incremental behavior control we have experienced is very similar to a candid camera set up. Whether intentional or not and without regard to merit, we have all been subjects of a mass social engineering experiment.  

The initial CDC gathering guidelines seemed reasonable. No gatherings with more than 250 people, keep the density down, no more than 10 people for vulnerable folks, no mass gatherings in areas of significant community spread.   Then on March 15, news organizations stated the CDC had revised their group guidelines to a maximum 50.  March 16, Trump issued guidelines limiting all gatherings to 10 people.  Everything tumbled from there.  Some prohibit gatherings of any size.  It is a crime to enter many public areas by yourself.  Bans can be found on swimming, wandering, boating, thinking.  Monroe County issued a quarantine order for anyone arriving from anywhere.  Break quarantine and go immediately to a corona filled jail. Michigan is an excellent example of the candid camera strategy. The governor recently issued an edict that carpeting, flooring, furniture, plants and paint were no longer essential and the citizens were forbidden to shop for these items in store.  Corona is one crafty bit of work.  How did the governor know corona now hides in paint cans? 

When will folks reach their banana in the mouth moment?  Many Americans already have.  Protests have occurred in Michigan, North Carolina and Kentucky with more on the books.  Sadly, there is yet another serious divide developing between the protestors and those who are happy to put the banana in their mouth.  It will be curious to see if this break mirrors the existing divides that are already tearing our country apart.  And I am quite interested in masks and how they relate to bananas…

Details

  • The initial CDC guideline referenced above can be found here. Interestingly I could find no official CDC document that revised the maximum size of gatherings from 250 to 50. News outlets reported this change.
  • A friend clued me into the concept of “incrementalism”.  I found it to be a worthwhile detour  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incrementalism.  If incrementalism was purposefully utilized, after reading the last sentence, the powers that be missed the mark.  “The political scientist Charles E. Lindblom developed Incrementalism in the mid 1950s. “The Science of Muddling Through” (1959), was an essay Lindblom wrote to help policymakers understand why they needed to consider a different approach when making policy changes. The goal for the new perspective of Incrementalism was for policy makers to avoid making changes before they really engaged and rationally thought through the issue.[3]”   
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Maintaining Normalcy

How do you stay healthy in normal times?  It’s different for everybody.  For me, good relationships, nature, a clean diet, fun, exercise for body and brain, swimming, creative endeavors and dark chocolate do the trick.  Now that we are deep in the twilight zone, it is more important than ever to stay healthy and keep our immune system humming along.  How?  I reckon we maintain whatever our normal is to the greatest degree possible.  Immunity is complex but balance and happiness certainly play a role.  

How do we maintain normal now?  It’s difficult.  And in our town it was made especially difficult when the public spaces were closed, everything but the dog park that is.  Access to sand, water and parks are why we are here.  It’s our normal. Jumping in the ocean makes it a good day.  And good days are integral to balance, happiness and immunity.  

The town is empty, tourists are gone and road blocks are up.  Why are the public spaces still closed?  Social distancing is a non-issue so spare me the rote answer that it’s for our safety.  Why does the City place a higher priority on the poop and play habits of dogs over the wellbeing of the citizens?  As I photographed the police protecting the beach from people like me, I pondered these questions.  Very puzzling.  Then I was struck by an uncomfortable thought.  Closing the public spaces drags people way out of normal, upping the fear factor and potentially destabilizing folks.  Does that make them easier to control and manipulate?  Me thinks it does.  Then the follow up question arrived.   Are the officious among us smart enough to realize their actions result in more pliable citizens?  Hmmm.  Some are.   How much do you want to bet there is a memo circulating? 

The motivation to keep everything closed could be far simpler.  They are overwhelmed, worried about liability or just plain lazy. It is a question of priorities.  Priority one is the health and wellbeing of the citizens.  Priority two is reduce the spread of the virus.  If the powers that be placed equal weight on these priorities, the public spaces would be reopened.  To be extra safe, people could wear masks. If the City worries that social distance criminals will emerge, have the police shift their duties to protecting us rather than the beach.  And news flash, the images of NYC opened everyone’s eyes to the danger, not you.  We all get it and are quite capable of personal responsibility.  

Corona will result in many changes in our society.  One is the selection of leaders who understand that their top priority is the wellbeing of the citizens and, equally important, leaders who understand what constitutes wellbeing…

Details

  • It appears one pier was opened for swimming.  If that can be done, the rest can be done too.  
  • I sent two letters to our Mayor on this subject.  The second remains unanswered.
  • More dark chocolate is allowed now.
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Batman, Batgirl and Robin

I feel like I am in a Batman episode.  Has the Joker teamed up with Lex Luther in a diabolical plot to take over the world?  Or is he happily on the sidelines waiting for the opportune moment to swoop in?  Let’s run a story line and see.  

The Joker watched the 2009 pandemic unfold and had a great idea. Why not convert his toxin to a highly contagious virus, cripple Gotham City and seize control? First he had to lay the groundwork. Make people more susceptible to media messaging and dumb them down. Divide and conquer using identity politics. Encourage folks to feel victimized so personal responsibility becomes some dusty, old fashioned principal. Who needs to be responsible for their decisions? The government promises tons of free stuff no matter what. Ramp up litigation so government and business cater to the smallest minority. Bombard the people with one doomsday scenario after another. Make people doubt their own sanity when prepubescent kids question their gender and adults identify as mermaids. And very important, support politicians who are more interested in virtue signaling than virtue. The Joker is good at what he does. The stage was set.

Then the Joker spreads his deadly virus.  Yeehaaa!  What a perfect weapon. It spreads fast and silently because most people don’t even know they have it.  But when it kills it does so spectacularly.  “Bring out your dead” images are super helpful to the Joker.  He wants to engage emotions and disengage brains.  How do you do that?  Fear.  Plus he designed the virus to kill old people and others with serious health conditions.  He doesn’t want those old farts around with their heart disease and diabetes.  And the human isolation that results is like a cherry on top.  How can people revolt when they avoid each other, dare I say, like the plague?  One of the Joker’s favorite outcomes is separating people from their cherished institutions.  What a fab way to crush unity.  

Batman, Batgirl and Robin are on it.  They want to do whatever is necessary to save lives and because they don’t know anything decided to create some models so they could guess. These models produced astronomical death and hospitalization numbers that stoked intense fear and panic throughout Gotham City.  A mad rush ensued to develop testing, add hospital beds and restore depleted supplies.  Batman wisely shuts down the economy for two weeks via social distancing.  The goal was to flatten the curve so hospitals could handle the patient load, save more lives and bring testing and treatments online.  They also renamed corona virus Covid-19. 

The Joker’s minions raise a hue and cry to keep Gotham shuttered with extreme social distancing.  The Joker’s no dummy.  He knows if he hamstrings the most essential component of the economic structure, it will weaken and fail.  That element of course is the people of Gotham City.  Meanwhile Batgirl and Robin fret over their models and with very little actual data they convince Batman to close the country for an additional month.  The cascade of economic hardship starts in earnest.  So does the dying.  The Joker is positively giddy with delight.  This is better than he ever dreamed.   

Meanwhile the virtue signaling governors make the Joker proud with a shutdown contest.  Who could shutdown faster, longer and with more draconian measures?   Me, I am the best governor since I shut everything down till May.  No its me, only me, since I shut down till mid-June even though I have zero data to support my decision.  No you useless twerp, it’s me because I arrested a paddle boarder by himself in the ocean.  You all are second rate has beens, I am the best guardian of human life since I told the stores to stop carrying nonessential items.   And what about the governors who have very few corona cases and are reticent to destroy the citizens’ economic and mental health for a scourge that may not materialize?  The pressure on them is extraordinary.  

Not one of the virtue signalers held a public debate on the pros and cons of their actions, questioned the models or asked the people their opinion.  Instead they assume the people are too stupid to have a voice.  The people cower and question nothing.  

In the midst of the shutdown challenge, the Joker adds his best touch yet.  He starts the “money vs lives” campaign. Genius. The media bends to his will and begins a relentless drumbeat. This ploy effectively marginalizes all who wonder if there is another way, a middle ground that saves lives and the economy.  Those who question the extreme measures are viewed as heartless, cruel subhumans who will sacrifice grandma to save the evildoers on Wall St.  It encourages neighbors to assume a righteous mantle and rat out their neighbors.  The phrase silences debate in favor of a narrow emotional reaction that excludes a reasonable perspective on death.  Damn the Joker is good.  

Batman recognizes he has a big problem on his hands as unemployment numbers skyrocket and businesses, small and large, falter.  How did they not foresee this tsunami of economic destruction, ruined lives and depleted 401ks?  Entire industries are wounded, perhaps mortally.  In response Batman proposes the biggest government bailout in Gotham’s history.  It weakens Gotham further.  The Joker is a happy man.  

So where are we now?  We have learned the models were wrong.  Batman, Batgirl and Robin say the models weren’t wrong, social distancing caused the dramatic decline. But we aren’t that dumb.  We know the models assumed social distancing and they are just plain wrong.  We know that they crippled the economy based on faulty data.  And we are infinitely sad that 18,777 fellow citizens have died from corona, 7,887 of those in NY.  We must avoid a repeat of this in other high density areas.    

So what happens next?  What does the Joker do now?  When will he make his move?  Will he give it up when he realizes how many guns we have?  What will Batman do?  And Batgirl and Robin?  Has Batman enlisted more help?  Alas we will be forced to watch the story unfold…

Details:

  • I don’t believe that corona is manmade but with what we have seen in the last couple months anything is possible.   
  • I am only half joking when I say this all feels like a Batman movie.  We have voluntarily weakened our country to an unprecedented degree.  Did any faction help this destruction along?  I don’t know but once again, anything is possible.  The world is not comprised of people singing kumbaya.   Bad actors exist who thrive on opportunities. If there were ever a case of “where there is confusion, there is opportunity”, this is it.  It is extreme naivety to assume otherwise.