You have a very difficult job. We understand and appreciate your effort. But now is the time to agree that the curve has been flattened. We cannot keep the State closed in a quest to eliminate the curve. If you and other politicians insist on an extended shutdown, you can add millions of ruined lives to your resume. The economic destruction is and will be enormous to both private industry and government. Why is corona virus the only illness exempt from a reasonable risk analysis? Where is the perspective? Next will politicians eliminate sugar from the food supply to combat diabetes? Ban all environmental factors that are known to cause cancer? Force all citizens to get a flu vaccine every year? Quarantine all people susceptible to HIV until a cure is found? Permanently evacuate all areas where mosquitos carry malaria? Ban suicide? Ban motor vehicles? Ban humans? The absurdity is beyond comprehension.
Unlike some other governors, you understand how economies function and the destruction occurring each day Maryland remains closed. So why are you not taking concrete steps to open immediately? Is this about federal funds? What can be more important than the lives of all of the constituents? The fastest way to increase the State’s coffers is to open back up.
Politicians are destroying this country. Please be bold, stop the insanity and open. Everyone can wear masks and maintain social distance. Restaurants can reduce seating. Vulnerable people can remain at home. No doubt there are many solutions that creative minds will find if you just let them. The people have a choice. It is time for us to make it.
Yes, sadly, some people will catch the virus. Presumably the hospitals have used the past month to prepare. We mourn for those who have succumbed to this virus and worry greatly for the health care workers on the front line. We must strike a balance, however, between those at risk from the virus and those at risk from shuttering the economy. This is not a case of “money vs lives”. It is “lives vs lives”.
I do have a question that requires an answer. Does the State have the constitutional authority to order a business to close for an extended period of time? And to determine what is an essential business and what is not? And require these businesses to pay taxes while they are closed?
Again, I appreciate the pressure you are under. Imagine what it will be when the Federal government can no longer bail everyone out.
Does someone have control of Governor Hogan? A big corporate winner in the corona games? A myopic medical advisor? His campaign manager? His words are right but his actions are wrong. It is perplexing.
For example, Maryland stonewalled the release of nursing home data until last week. Perhaps it is because nursing home deaths comprise 55% of the total deaths in Maryland. While this raises many questions on the management of aggregate care facilities, it also raises a serious question about data. Hogan has stated he will only reopen after 14 days of flattened or declining hospitalization and death trends. Which trends? Trend curves that include nursing home data? That doesn’t make sense. Will nursing home patients be on the front line of our economic restart? No. Therefore only trends that include the demographics of those who will kick start demand and the workforce should be included. Nursing home trends should only dictate safety guidelines for nursing homes.
To that end, Maryland should immediately release case, hospitalization and death trends for people 65 and under, net of nursing home data, with and without underlying conditions. The citizens have the right to follow the trends that impact their lives. Aside from evaluating Hogan’s performance, this data will mitigate fear by outlining the actual corona risk to the new frontline assuming proper physical distance and hygiene. Certainly this is not a novel thought. It is, however, an important one and it is disturbing that it hasn’t been considered publicly.
Along these same lines, data from highly specialized environments, such as poultry plants should result in unique safety requirements applicable to those businesses. Under no circumstances should data from these locations influence the reopening of the rest of the state.
Governor Hogan stated “there is nothing more important to me than getting our economy and our people back on their feet”. If this were true, why hasn’t he examined the appropriate trends regionally? Some areas probably already have 14 days of flattening if indeed there ever was a curve. Could portions of the eastern shore and the west go to phase 2 now with strict guidelines in place?
A leader whose top priority is keeping citizens safe from both the virus and an economic meltdown would dispense with the benevolent dictator schtick. His actions are anything but benevolent to small business. Hogan clearly feels empowered to willfully kill one business over another. For example, why has Hogan allowed people to buy flooring at Home Depot but not at a small independently owned business? Why does Hogan insist that you can only buy spice at a corporate grocery store but not at a small business dedicated to spice? We don’t need 14 days of anything to open these stores up, they should open now.
At this point in the outbreak, a leader dedicated to reopening would also be brutally honest about the consequences of the stay at home orders. Hogan barely mentions them. Based on what is known now about the virus, if the public balanced current corona risks against the risks of the shutdown, they would demand an immediate, safe opening of all business that can maintain physical distance and/or implement hygiene standards known to stop the spread. For those who only watch nonstop corona news or avoid all news, let’s hit a few highlights. Note each item below results in its own cascade of serious additional consequences. Maryland faces an estimated 2.8 billion shortfall. Over 30 million unemployed. Loss of life due to delayed health care and suicide. Sharp decline in economic activity and consumer confidence. 401ks in the tank. A frightening surge in credit card, rent and mortgage defaults. Hotels at 20% capacity if open. Travel and airline industries crushed. Manufacturing plants shuttered or crippled. Hospitals hemorrhage cash and lay off tens of thousands jeopardizing our health care industry. Empty storefronts and failed businesses. Restaurants gone. Livestock slaughtered. Troubling international incidents. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, plummeted at a 7.6% rate in the first quarter, the most since 1980. Economy shrank at 4.8% rate in the first quarter. The reduction in second quarter GDP will likely be staggering. US government set to borrow a record $2.99 trillion in the second quarter. The American dream crushed for many. The list goes on and on and this is just the beginning. For those who still claim the demand to reopen is for our convenience you are wrong, it is for our lives, figurative and literal.
In closing I ask Maryland citizens, does it make sense that a reopen strategy is strongly influenced by what is happening in nursing homes? Should our reopening be delayed due to outbreaks in highly specialized environments that demand unique safety guidelines? Should we ignore that the majority of states have begun the process to reopen? They can’t all be wrong. Should Hogan have the right to decide which businesses live and which die when either can be safe? Why should we accept arbitrary edicts that have zero impact on the spread of corona? Does it make sense to delay reopening when commonsense approaches that protect the vulnerable are possible? Does it make sense to delay when the consequences of doing so present a clear and present danger? No. With the curve flattened and hospital capacity sufficient, none of this makes sense which brings me back to the beginning. Who is in control?
The purpose of this letter is to outline questions and comments regarding the press conference Friday 4/24/20. Assertions that small business has been a top priority are called into question by your actions. If equal weight had been placed on the physical, mental and economic health of all of the citizens, a balanced approach would have been pursued. Evidence of such an approach would have been the creation of a task force on day 1 that represented the viewpoints of not only epidemiologists and the medical community but also business, banking and mental health. Instead a lopsided, reactionary strategy based on faulty “science” was implemented leaving immeasurable human and financial destruction in its wake.
This single focused strategy also gave rise to government gods recklessly choosing who lives and dies, who gets a paycheck and who doesn’t. Home Depot is safe but hundreds of other businesses that could manage 6’ spacing are unsafe? A hair salon can provide services to an essential person with papers but no one else? Are essential people and businesses somehow immune from covid-19? Why are all state employees still receiving paychecks when the state’s income has been decimated?
Missing from the press conference was any discussion of real data. I presume the team is familiar with the studies emerging that suggest infection is far more widespread resulting in a death rate under 1%? Or does the team focus more on the attacks leveled at these studies instead of the possibilities they suggest? Has an attempt been made to estimate the actual death rate considering asymptomatic case rates may be 50% or greater? Let’s assume the death rate is around 0.6% as some suggest. Would you have supported a complete destruction of demand if we knew this on March 1? Doubtful.
But what is done is done. How do we move forward and protect the vulnerable from the very infectious covid-19 and the rest of us from the government gods? I am very happy to hear that business minds have now been added to the team because I fear that if it were left to the medical professionals, stay at home orders would be in place until a vaccine was available. Can commonsense steps be taken to open many businesses now? Yes.
A simple approach would focus on the existing demographic data for deaths and ICU admissions. As of today there are 929 total deaths in Maryland and 551 patients in ICU. (For perspective please note that that 50,668 Marylanders died in 2018 from all causes.) In the press conference we learned a high percentage of these numbers represent nursing home patients. While these lives are as valuable as any other life, people in nursing homes are not the ones shopping and operating businesses. What about the workforce? How many of the deaths were people under 65 without underlying health conditions? Using percentages from various studies this number is probably between 17 and 42 people out of a population of 6,043,000.
This data suggests government should stop playing god and immediately allow any business to reopen that can adjust to physical distance guidelines. Protect the vulnerable and allow everyone else to go back to work. Each individual chooses. Anyone uncomfortable leaving the house can remain there. Open public spaces with physical distance guidelines. Phase in the remaining businesses and events as soon as possible based on real data. Would infections spike? Probably. But once again, what is the hospitalization rate for those under 65 without underlying conditions? Balance this threat against the devastating impact of staying closed another two weeks.
Every day matters. Each minute we remain closed, the consequences will pile up exponentially. All lives matter. Waiting is disaster. It is absurd to rely on continued federal bailouts. It’s time to save ourselves both from the virus and the government’s reaction to it. If we start the process now, we will be one day closer to the oft discussed herd immunity and one day further from toxic herd fear.
During the press conference, the lack of any attempt to dispel fear was disturbing. Some would suggest that a healthy level of fear aids the government gods in their ability to control people. How do I know fear levels are sky high and people’s brains paralyzed? Simply observe how many people wear a mask when engaged in solitary activities. The fear will subside, however, as the damage mounts. There will be serious questions. Even now folks wonder why you listen to federal guidelines when they don’t make sense. And if commonsense is absent from Maryland’s strategy, it won’t be long before we wonder why we should listen to you.
Many, including me, are wondering how to handle the mask edicts from on high. Are these requirements legal? Do cloth masks work? This article focuses on the latter question. Below is the CDC guideline:
CDC is recommending the use of a cloth face covering to keep people who are infected but do not have symptoms from spreading COVID-19 to others.
The cloth face cover is meant to protect other people in case you are infected.
The cloth face coverings recommended are not surgical masks or N-95 respirators. Medical face masks are critical supplies that should be reserved for healthcare workers and other first responders, as recommended by CDC.
The cloth face cover is not a substitute for social distancing.
CDC continues to recommend that people try keep about 6 feet between themselves and others.
The corona virus is approximately .125 micron in diameter. A micron is a unit of length equal to one millionth of a meter. That is small. However, it often travels in biological aerosols from coughing and sneezing which range in size from 0.5-3 micron.
The N of the much discussed N95 mask means “Not resistant to oil”. In other words, N95s protect against solid and liquid airborne particles that do not contain oil. The 95 means that it is 95% efficient in blocking down to 0.3 micron particles. So a well fitted N95 mask will make you feel reasonably confident around someone with corona.
Surgical masks offer less protection than N95. According to the FDA, “While a surgical mask may be effective in blocking splashes and large-particle droplets, a face mask, by design, does not filter or block very small particles in the air that may be transmitted by coughs, sneezes, or certain medical procedures. Surgical masks also do not provide complete protection from germs and other contaminants because of the loose fit between the surface of the face mask and your face.”
What about cloth masks? My goal was to look for studies that occurred prior to the pandemic to avoid “studies” that are intended to influence behavior. I found a study conducted in 2015 by a team from University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam and Beijing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “ The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of cloth masks to medical masks in hospital healthcare workers (HCWs). The null hypothesis is that there is no difference between medical masks and cloth masks.” Not surprisingly rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask group. In the interest of transparency, please note the study was funded in part by 3M.
Do cloth masks do anything? I found a 2013 Cambridge University study which concluded “both masks significantly reduced the number of microorganisms expelled by volunteers, although the surgical mask was 3 times more effective in blocking transmission than the homemade mask.” While a cloth mask may not protect as well as a surgical mask, they do offer protection.
I spoke with a family member who has spent his life studying viruses. While he is not fond of wearing a cloth mask, he says they are helpful but not perfectly effective. He believes a big benefit of wearing a mask is keeping your hands off your face. I also spoke with friends and family members in healthcare. The message was consistent. Masks offer protection. Cloth at the bottom, followed by surgical then N95. Wash hands frequently and do not touch your mask or your face.
So what’s the bottom line? My initial reaction to the mask edict was “I will wear one when I see every politician wearing one and only if I can pick their fabric”. After researching, I have modified my opinion and will wear a mask when social distancing (I hate that phrase) is not possible. Surgical masks are my first choice. Would I wear a mask outside biking or walking. No. When I see masked folks engaged in solitary endeavors, my first thought is they should recalibrate their fear meter and realize breathing fresh air is a good thing. But who am I to judge? If it makes someone more comfortable to wear a mask, it might reduce stress and help with immunity. Would I enter a high risk area with a cloth mask? No. I would wear a surgical mask or N95 depending on the situation.
My conclusion is wearing a mask, cloth or otherwise, will reduce the risk. Perhaps on an equal footing is hand washing and not picking your nose. If masks will help get this country open, I am all in. Heck, I will wear a bunch of them at once. Unfortunately for many of our so called leaders, masks will do nothing to overcome their urge to posture for federal money, pander to their base or use corona as a stepping stone to higher office. It’s very sad for our country that it’s an election year.
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For references on data and actual studies, please click on links embedded above.
Smart Air Filters has done studies on the efficiency of masks to block particles. I would recommend checking out their site if you are interested in a deeper dive. They have also have tested various fabrics for their virus blocking abilities.
Both Smart Air and Vaniman utilize the 2013 Cambridge study in their material. In Vaniman’s summary they only included the first sentence of the Cambridge conclusion and neglected to mention that surgical masks reduced transmission by a factor of 3 over cloth masks. Interesting and a reminder that one always has to go to the source to find the whole story.
N95 masks are not available to the public due to shortages. Note that FDA approved the use of KN95 masks for healthcare workers. These masks are often identical to N95 masks and are the “N95 equivalent” for medical usage in China. According to Vaniman they offer the same filtration as N95 face masks with a rating of 95% at 0.3 Micron. Vaniman has them available for May delivery if interested. Comparison shopping might be a good idea. https://www.vaniman.com/product/k-n95-face-masks/
Who is coloring your hair??? Are they standing 6’ away with a spray nozzle? Or perhaps on a platform 6 feet above you, dropping buckets of color on your head? Or maybe someone filled your gold plated toilet with color and gave you a swirly?
The vast majority of Americans are prohibited from visiting a hairdresser but the shutdown kings and queens are all perfectly quaffed? We know you have gray hair Donald and Nancy. How about you Gretchen, you’re 48 and probably have some gray creeping in? Was someone coloring your hair when you released the edict that paint sales were verboten? And let’s not forget all the fear mongering talking heads who paralyzed the country with their high drama and low perspective reporting. How are you coloring your hair???
Oh I would love to ask these questions directly. But the answers are sadly predictable. “Me, in front of a camera with a botched DIY color job? Heavens no. I am so huge. I am so important. I am almighty. How could I possibly be subject to my own edicts? Tsk, tsk you silly girl.”
While the shutdown royalty are getting their hair cut and colored by the pros, what are we doing? The panic over roots was palpable. Where to buy DIY color? How in the world to pick a color? How to even find color? A run started the day the economy was shuttered. But I got lucky. My enterprising colorist delivered color to the door with a brush and gloves. I left an envelop with cash. Smart. She saved us an enormous amount of money. Reinstalling all the mirrors I ripped out would have been a notable expense.
Having the tools is one thing, using them is another. Considering my proclivity towards making a mess, I figured the only safe place was a gravelly area outside. As bad luck would have it, that area is also used by the neighborhood animals. No doubt Nancy would love to join me in the litter box for a girls spa day. I brought a mirror outside, cut holes in a trash bag for my head and arms, mixed the color up and got down to business. I have not looked at the back of my head and have no intention of doing so.
Meanwhile Earl had to find a solution to avoid that homeless look going around. I think he got the last set of clippers in the world. You can’t even buy manscape clippers. So I gave Earl my first ever buzz cut. The first time was a bit scary. The second time I left a little message on the back of his head….
Anyway, listen up all you who worship at the alter of false models, stop with the “we are all in this together” BS. Clearly that’s not true. Your hypocrisy cheapens us all.
Many years ago I wandered into the local vege/fruit store and found myself in a conversation with the bananas. Sure I always talk to bananas at 7:00 am. After a bit of verbal foreplay, the bananas then asked me to pick up one of their own. Why not, I said. The banana hijinks started slowly but each request was a bit more outlandish than the last. Then the bananas asked that I use their friend as a microphone. Warning, warning, warning. Then the bananas nicely suggested I put that banana in my mouth as if it were the most natural thing to do. Their coaxing tone conveyed a hope beyond hope that I would stop laughing and comply. Oh please, please, make my day, the bananas intoned. I did not make the bananas’ day. While I had been happy to play along, no good could come from sticking that banana in my mouth. With much hilarity, people came out of their hidey holes and announced “You are on Candid Camera”. It was one of the funniest 15 minutes of my life.
I had not thought of my TV debut in years. Then corona hit and the talking bananas came to mind. My subconscious was onto it. The incremental behavior control we have experienced is very similar to a candid camera set up. Whether intentional or not and without regard to merit, we have all been subjects of a mass social engineering experiment.
The initial CDC gathering guidelines seemed reasonable. No gatherings with more than 250 people, keep the density down, no more than 10 people for vulnerable folks, no mass gatherings in areas of significant community spread. Then on March 15, news organizations stated the CDC had revised their group guidelines to a maximum 50. March 16, Trump issued guidelines limiting all gatherings to 10 people. Everything tumbled from there. Some prohibit gatherings of any size. It is a crime to enter many public areas by yourself. Bans can be found on swimming, wandering, boating, thinking. Monroe County issued a quarantine order for anyone arriving from anywhere. Break quarantine and go immediately to a corona filled jail. Michigan is an excellent example of the candid camera strategy. The governor recently issued an edict that carpeting, flooring, furniture, plants and paint were no longer essential and the citizens were forbidden to shop for these items in store. Corona is one crafty bit of work. How did the governor know corona now hides in paint cans?
When will folks reach their banana in the mouth moment? Many Americans already have. Protests have occurred in Michigan, North Carolina and Kentucky with more on the books. Sadly, there is yet another serious divide developing between the protestors and those who are happy to put the banana in their mouth. It will be curious to see if this break mirrors the existing divides that are already tearing our country apart. And I am quite interested in masks and how they relate to bananas…
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The initial CDC guideline referenced above can be found here. Interestingly I could find no official CDC document that revised the maximum size of gatherings from 250 to 50. News outlets reported this change.
A friend clued me into the concept of “incrementalism”. I found it to be a worthwhile detour https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incrementalism. If incrementalism was purposefully utilized, after reading the last sentence, the powers that be missed the mark. “The political scientist Charles E. Lindblom developed Incrementalism in the mid 1950s. “The Science of Muddling Through” (1959), was an essay Lindblom wrote to help policymakers understand why they needed to consider a different approach when making policy changes. The goal for the new perspective of Incrementalism was for policy makers to avoid making changes before they really engaged and rationally thought through the issue.[3]”
How do you stay healthy in normal times? It’s different for everybody. For me, good relationships, nature, a clean diet, fun, exercise for body and brain, swimming, creative endeavors and dark chocolate do the trick. Now that we are deep in the twilight zone, it is more important than ever to stay healthy and keep our immune system humming along. How? I reckon we maintain whatever our normal is to the greatest degree possible. Immunity is complex but balance and happiness certainly play a role.
How do we maintain normal now? It’s difficult. And in our town it was made especially difficult when the public spaces were closed, everything but the dog park that is. Access to sand, water and parks are why we are here. It’s our normal. Jumping in the ocean makes it a good day. And good days are integral to balance, happiness and immunity.
The town is empty, tourists are gone and road blocks are up. Why are the public spaces still closed? Social distancing is a non-issue so spare me the rote answer that it’s for our safety. Why does the City place a higher priority on the poop and play habits of dogs over the wellbeing of the citizens? As I photographed the police protecting the beach from people like me, I pondered these questions. Very puzzling. Then I was struck by an uncomfortable thought. Closing the public spaces drags people way out of normal, upping the fear factor and potentially destabilizing folks. Does that make them easier to control and manipulate? Me thinks it does. Then the follow up question arrived. Are the officious among us smart enough to realize their actions result in more pliable citizens? Hmmm. Some are. How much do you want to bet there is a memo circulating?
The motivation to keep everything closed could be far simpler. They are overwhelmed, worried about liability or just plain lazy. It is a question of priorities. Priority one is the health and wellbeing of the citizens. Priority two is reduce the spread of the virus. If the powers that be placed equal weight on these priorities, the public spaces would be reopened. To be extra safe, people could wear masks. If the City worries that social distance criminals will emerge, have the police shift their duties to protecting us rather than the beach. And news flash, the images of NYC opened everyone’s eyes to the danger, not you. We all get it and are quite capable of personal responsibility.
Corona will result in many changes in our society. One is the selection of leaders who understand that their top priority is the wellbeing of the citizens and, equally important, leaders who understand what constitutes wellbeing…
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It appears one pier was opened for swimming. If that can be done, the rest can be done too.
I sent two letters to our Mayor on this subject. The second remains unanswered.
Gun and ammo sales have skyrocketed since the corona virus exploded out of China. Antigun activists are wringing their hands blaming it on the NRA and 2A supporters sense what we all know deep down, self-reliance is paramount. Gun sales indicate a deep concern that government will not be there when the zombies mount a ruthless invasion in search of toilet paper. Zombies are like that.
As an aside, where is everyone hoarding their toilet paper? The stores still run out within minutes of restocking. Have additions been built? Bedrooms converted? Attics piled to the rafters? I imagine houses stuffed with thousands of rolls of toilet paper where humans walk through winding TP slot canyons. Dogs and cats absolutely love this. Excellent for a good indoor pee. But really if people would just buy what they need and leave the rest in the stores, the zombies will leave us alone and confine their rampages to grocery stores. Plus I am not a good enough shot yet to ward off a zombie attack.
But with training and practice, I will have the gun skills to take down any zombie. I look forward to that day. My hands still sweat a bit and I forget to breathe sometimes but my mind is settling into it. That and repetition will do the trick. Until something new happens, let’s move on to more pressing matters. Batman comes to mind…
Strong coffee and a nap first may be required to get through this one…
Have you ever had to convince anyone of anything? If so, you have discovered that presentation is key to success. Should you just lay out the facts or should certain things be emphasized, glossed over or omitted all together?
Another rule in presentation is to keep it simple. Pretty hard to do with climate prediction, a subject that is complex, scientific and poorly understood. And simplicity becomes even more necessary with a nation that feeds on sound bites. What does this have to do with the climate wars you ask.
Greenhouse Gases, created by Jay Lehr, Ph.D., Senior Policy Analyst for International Climate Science Coalition
Let’s demonstrate with water vapor. A quick review – of the greenhouse gases 95% is water vapor, 3.6% is carbon dioxide and the remaining 1.4% includes nitrous oxide, methane and other trace gases. Of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, only a small portion is from manmade sources. I believe everyone agrees to these scientific facts. Regardless, how the various factions present the quantity and properties of the greenhouse gases is vastly different, so much so that one might conclude one side or the other is being economical with the truth.
Do a google search for pie charts of greenhouse gases. Here is a screen shot of my search. Of 420 pie charts guess how many included water vapor? Two charts. That’s it. Most are geared towards emissions, not the big picture of what natural and manmade gases exist in the atmosphere. My initial thought was, that’s weird, how is it treated in a couple of my reference books:
The Thinking Person’s Guide to Climate Change by Robert Henson – Mr. Henson falls into the Prepper category. He does mention water vapor as a greenhouse gas but leaves out the fact that water vapor is 95% of the total. Mr. Henson states “water vapor isn’t a very strong greenhouse gas but it makes up for this weakness in sheer abundance” and water vapor only acts as a feedback not a driver of climate. The positive feedback loop theory suggests the atmosphere can accommodate more water vapor when the air is warmer. Therefore when temperatures increase as a result of increased levels of CO2, water vapor will also increase. More water vapor means more warming thereby amplifying the effects of CO2.
The Mythology of Global Warming by Bruce Bunker – Dr. Bunker falls into the Debater category. The percentage of each greenhouse gas is outlined as is the methodology used to calculate the ability of each gas molecule to absorb infrared radiation. In other words, how much does each greenhouse gas contribute to the greenhouse effect. Dr. Bunker states that “a single water molecule absorbs over twice the heat of molecules of either carbon dioxide or methane which are nearly identical in their ability to absorb infrared radiation”. Hmmm, that’s the opposite of what Mr. Henson said. Since there are so many more water vapor molecules than carbon dioxide or methane molecules, the impact of water vapor on global warming far outweighs the impact of carbon dioxide or methane. “On a percentage basis atmospheric carbon dioxide absorbs less than 0.74% of the heat absorbed by atmospheric water, while methane absorbs less than 0.004%.” Dr. Bunker does not mention the potential feedback loop of water vapor.
If Dr. Bunker has outlined the properties of water vapor correctly, one would think it belongs in any conversation of global warming. In case the Prepper book above was an anomaly, I hit google. Articles are organized from Debater through various levels of Prepper.
https://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html “Water Rules the Greenhouse System”. This article presents the relative impacts of greenhouse gases with and without including water vapor in the calculation and begins with this sentence. “Just how much of the “Greenhouse Effect” is caused by human activity? It is about 0.28%, if water vapor is taken into account– about 5.53%, if not. This point is so crucial to the debate over global warming that how water vapor is or isn’t factored into an analysis of Earth’s greenhouse gases makes the difference between describing a significant human contribution to the greenhouse effect, or a negligible one.” The rest of the article explains how the author came to this conclusion and the chart below depicts the author’s claim graphically. Even though it was written in 2003, I chose this article since it is clearly written.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/greenhouse-gases.php#intro “Greenhouse Gases”. The intro explains that greenhouse gases exist in the atmosphere naturally but due to our interference in the carbon cycle via fossil fuel emissions, forest burning and mining we artificially move carbon from its solid state to a gaseous state thereby increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere. This article describes each greenhouse gas and states that water vapor is the most plentiful greenhouse gas. The positive feedback loop is discussed but the article also states that “huge scientific uncertainty exists in defining the extent and importance of this feedback loop”. This is one of the few articles I read that also mentions the possibility of a negative feedback loop or the potential cooling associated with additional water vapor in the atmosphere. The theory suggests higher temperatures result in higher water vapor which leads to increased cloud formation. Clouds reflect solar radiation, therefore less radiation actually reaches the earth’s surface and the temperature actually cools rather than warms. The article states that we do not have the ability to accurately measure the quantity of water vapor in the atmosphere. This is huge if true. It seems to me that if scientists can’t measure water vapor accurately, there is no way to prove the feedback loop theories, positive or negative. If this were the only article you read, you would have no idea that water vapor represents 95% of greenhouse gases with twice the infrared radiation absorbance potential on a molecule by molecule basis compared to carbon dioxide (assuming the absorbance information is true of course, sigh…).
https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html – This NASA article recognizes water vapor as an important greenhouse gas but only because it creates a positive feedback loop related to CO2 increases. “The heat-amplifying effect of water vapor is potent enough to double the climate warming caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide.” This treats the positive feedback loop as fact and does not mention any scientific uncertainty regarding feedback loops as in the NOAA article above. Nor does it address the concentration of water vapor in relation to carbon dioxide and their relative ability to absorb infrared radiation.
https://www.eartheclipse.com/climate-change/effects-of-greenhouse-gases-on-climate-change.html “Effects of Greenhouse Gases on Climate” This article describes the greenhouse gases. The first sentence of the section on water vapor states “water vapor doesn’t actually have any effect on temperature so it is not rated with a Global Warming Potential”. Two sentences later the article describes the feedback loop: CO2 increase = temperature rise = water vapor increases = water vapor amplifies temperature increase. Confusing at best.
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases “Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Overview of Greenhouse Gases”. There is not one mention of water vapor. I clicked on the Global Warming Potential link and also no mention of water vapor.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/04/water-vapour-feedback-or-forcing/langswitch_lang/in/ and https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2008/02/common-climate-misconceptions-the-water-vapor-feedback-2/ Since it makes no logical sense to me that water vapor can only raise temps after CO2 raises them first, I tried to find articles to explain this theory. Good luck getting through the first article unless you are a climate scientist. They attempt to explain why water vapor should not be included as a greenhouse gas. One of the theories suggests that water vapor is not in the atmosphere long enough to drive climate. This is my question. Water vapor increases and decreases naturally due to normal weather events. Even though the individual molecules come and go, does water vapor’s overall concentration remain reasonably consistent? I will keep digging into this question.
The goal of this exercise was to determine if presentation tricks were occurring. Yes they most certainly are and not just with water vapor. Hopefully as this process continues we will understand why. Let’s sum up the water vapor issue. The Debaters are the only warriors who clearly outline the quantities of each greenhouse gas and water vapor’s ability to absorb infrared radiation. Presenting in this manner shows that the impacts of manmade carbon dioxide are miniscule compared to the warming properties of water vapor and natural carbon dioxide. The Preppers gloss over the quantity and properties of water vapor and believe water vapor’s primary role involves a positive feedback loop initiated by increases in manmade carbon dioxide. The Debaters believe the feedback loop is bad science, NOAA says the feedback loop is unsettled science and the Preppers says it is fact. Confused yet?
The Preppers rarely include water vapor in a chart depicting the atmospheric composition of greenhouse gases. Is this because a chart without water vapor is far more impactful? Or are they trying to keep it simple? Do the Preppers gloss over water vapor because they believe that even in very small quantities carbon dioxide has a huge impact on warming and including water vapor is a distraction? Or are they neglecting one of the many important factors in climate? Same question in reverse. Many Debaters include water vapor which graphically minimizes carbon dioxide. Do they do this to discount the impact of carbon dioxide? And of course the big question is, whose theories are accurate???
Are these presentation tricks utilized for altruistic or nefarious reasons? I don’t know the answers yet. My guess is this. The Grubbers have ulterior motives so convincing the public is critical to avoid, shall we say, an existential threat to their power and cash, ie nefarious. I reckon the rest of the climate warriors truly want everyone to believe what they believe and are doing whatever is necessary to put the best foot forward.
One would think a neophyte could look up the properties of greenhouse gases with ease. Nope. Not even close. How much heat each greenhouse gas has the potential to absorb is a foundational element of global warming theory. This should be a straightforward measurement with results communicated in a scientific manner. Instead I have found highly contradictory statements and opinions. More research is needed to present the various positions adequately so please bear with me as I take a step back and continue peeling back the layers. Meanwhile the graphic below illustrates the volume of the greenhouse gases. Since water vapor is clearly the predominant greenhouse gas, an understanding of its properties is key.
Greenhouse Gases, created by Jay Lehr, Ph.D., Senior Policy Analyst for International Climate Science Coalition
Note: There is significant disagreement over the quantity of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere attributable to manmade activities but all agree that the majority is of natural origins. Many also believe that manmade carbon dioxide exerts a notable impact on warming even though the total percentage is extremely small compared to water vapor. We will be getting into all of this after delving into the properties of water vapor.
