I am vaccinated and theoretically the risk of catching or transmitting covid is infinitesimal, so I do not wear a mask. It’s a simple concept which is why I am befuddled that mine is the only face on display in most establishments. It is understandable that a high risk vaccinated person may choose to continue masking, but everybody?
Today I ventured into a Whole Foods in Montgomery County, MD. I was the lone maskless human, as usual. The store was busy. A rather aggressive woman told me to put on a mask. I stated that the requirement for masks has been lifted plus I was vaccinated. She screeched “I have no idea if you are vaccinated or not”. I asked if Whole Foods’ requires masks even if the County does not. She said yes and that I was wrong, the County does require masks indoors. Hmmm. I put a mask on so I could check out and left the store. Because I am done with this nonsense, I did what I do and verified the facts. Whole Foods follows the local jurisdiction and Mongtomery County had lifted the mask mandate. No mask required.
Work Sue marched back in. The mask police were now at the door and asked me to put a mask on. No. Please? No. I went to customer service where a group of women were standing behind plexiglass and requested to speak to the manager. These poor women almost toppled over themselves backing away from me, the maskless monster. “Mam please, please step away”. Sigh. I waited for the manager. He calmly explained that Montgomery County mask mandate is in place until May 28, 2021 and Whole Foods follows the local jurisdiction. I calmly proved that he was wrong. I also suggested that to get over the Covid nightmare we need to get busy getting over it.
Even if Whole Foods instructs their mask police to stand down, it appears that many vaccinated, low risk folks will continue to mask in this area. Somehow these folks cannot grasp that covid is on the way out and their risk is very low. Sadly government at all levels and their media lapdogs have consistently doled out incomplete and misleading information. Fear blossomed and thinking stopped. The best remedy for these folks is to spend a week enjoying a maskless life and hopefully the spell will be broken.
Update 2.1.22
We have since learned that being vaccinated does not stop the spread of Covid. If it did, Covid would be in the rear view mirror. We have also learned, although many of us were aware of this from the beginning, cloth and surgical masks offer very limited protection against the highly transmissible Omicron. A high risk person in close proximity to others should perhaps consider a well fitted N95 mask. While some debate the effectiveness of even the N95, if my life were on the line, an N95 would be on my face.
Money vs lives. Remember that? Anyone who advocated for a balanced approach to Covid had that phrase viciously thrown in their faces in a high-pitched social media frenzy. The money vs lives mantra was generated and propagated by the lockdown proponents, adopted as gospel by a fear soaked populace and used strategically to silence common sense among the citizens and local politicians. Among other things, this weaponization of Covid was used to justify mail in voting and solidify power structures. But today let’s steep ourselves in the irony of another goal, the most basic of them all, money.
The reality of the money vs lives mantra is far different from the lockdown or die message in the early days of Covid. It’s Big Pharma money vs our lives. We little people are clearly expendable unless Big Pharma and their clingons can make a bundle. What other explanation is there for the incurious attitude of the western world to safe, inexpensive, off patent, readily available and potentially effective ivermectin? Why are front line doctors who have firsthand experience with ivermectin’s ability to reduce mortality and hospitalization ridiculed, criticized and fired? It has been known since April that ivermectin has notable potential as a Covid therapeutic. So why do the FDA, NIH and CDC say this inexpensive, off patent drug should not be used until further studies are done? Why haven’t these studies already been concluded as has been done with vaccines and expensive drugs that can be patented? It’s simple, there is not enough money in it to get Big Pharma’s attention.
For those who have never heard of ivermectin, it is an antiparasitic drug initially developed for animals in the 1970s. During the 1980s it was discovered that ivermectin was highly effective for certain parasites in humans. More than 3 billion doses have been prescribed (many donated by Merck) since the 1980s confirming its safe human use. Because in vitro studies have shown ivermectin to be a potentially potent antiviral agent as well, Leon Caly et al conducted an in vitro analysis of ivermectin’s effectiveness against Covid, releasing results in April 2020. The April study was widely criticized because in vitro doses were higher than what is considered safe for human use. Regardless some countries began treating Covid patients with ivermectin at safe dosages achieving notable reductions in mortality and hospitalizations. In the US a handful of doctors began using the drug with success even as the FDA, NIH and CDC continued to recommend against its use until rigorous clinical trials were conducted.
I recently became aware of ivermectin due to the grassroots efforts of Dr. Bruce Boros in Key West, FL. His success with the drug in treating Covid patients is notable. His disgust with the medical community for lack of interest in ivermectin is palpable. Dr. Boros first tried ivermectin on a hospitalized patient with 88% oxygen who was headed towards a ventilator, and therefore a high chance of death. After two doses of ivermectin, the patient’s downward trend was reversed and his lungs began to clear. This patient fully recovered. Dr. Boros has since treated approximately 160 Covid patients with ivermectin resulting in zero hospitalizations. He begins an ivermectin protocol immediately, even before PCR test results are returned since the earlier ivermectin is introduced, the sooner the viral replication is impeded providing the patient with the best chance to avoid serious illness and death.
Further research led to Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC) and Dr Pierre Kory who testified before the Senate Homeland Security committee on December 8, 2020. To potentially save your life or someone else’s, please make the effort to read his presentation or watch the video. An excerpt: “And so, it is with great pride as well as significant optimism, that I am here to report that our group, led by Professor Paul E. Marik, has developed a highly effective protocol for preventing and early treatment of COVID-19. In the last 3-4 months, emerging publications provide conclusive data on the profound efficacy of the anti-parasite, anti-viral drug, anti- inflammatory agent called ivermectin in all stages of the disease. Our protocol was created only recently, after we identified these data. Nearly all studies are demonstrating the therapeutic potency and safety of ivermectin in preventing transmission and progression of illness in nearly all who take the drug.”
“People are dying at unacceptable and untold rates. I am a lung and ICU specialist, and all I do right now is take care of COVID-19 patients dying of breathlessness in ICUs. By the time they get to the ICU, it is nearly impossible to save most patients…. I don’t know how much longer I can do this, especially knowing that it will all be needless death from here on out, given there is a readily available solution. A solution that cannot be dismissed or ignored. There is a critical need to inform health care providers in this country and the world. The leadership of our governmental health care agencies has a great responsibility here. All we ask is for the NIH, the CDC, and the FDA to conduct a rapid review of the literature reviewed in this presentation and provide guidance to the country’s health care providers.”
In addition to Dr. Kory’s testimony, please listen or read the Chairman’s (Senator Ron Johnson) and the ranking member’s (Senator Gary Peters) opening statements. Senator Johnson cannot understand why those who would attempt to implement early treatments are blocked and vilified. Senator Peters displays the worst form of politics while accusing Dr. Kory of a political gambit. “Sadly, it appears that today’s hearing will follow the same path, playing politics with public health, and will not give us the information we need to tackle this crisis.” Reprehensible.
Meanwhile according to Dr. Kory “the last treatment recommendation on ivermectin is from August 27th where on the NIH website, they recommended that ivermectin only be used in clinical trials and they based that recommendation as “expert opinion” only given the lack of clinical studies at the time.” Since the hearing and the release of FLCCC’s findings? Crickets.
While caution is an essential component of drug approval, my uneducated mind suggests there are serious ethical concerns with clinical trials considering the results of previous ivermectin trials. Would you want to be in the placebo group knowing that all studies to date show lower mortality with ivermectin? Politicians like Senator Peters have blood on their hands. As do the media outlets who attacked and attempted to silence Dr. Kory before he even spoke. As do the FDA, CDC and NIH who are mired in their own bureaucracy and Big Pharma funding. Yes, Big Pharma pays these agencies to conduct studies on their drugs of choice. Has Big Pharma stepped up to assist in the study of ivermectin? No. Have any of the massive pork relief bills Congress has passed include study of ivermectin? No (but the Kennedy Center got more money). An in depth review of the motives of Big Pharma, politicians, the media and social media platforms to subvert information on ivermectin is warranted in the event it goes beyond the typical “follow the money” story.
Ivermectin is not a cure for Covid. It is a promising therapeutic and preventative measure against Covid. How many more people will die or experience lifelong problems from this virus because there isn’t enough money involved for Big Pharma and the medical establishment to get excited about ivermectin. Yes, indeed, its money vs lives. Their money and our lives. Wake up people before it is too late.
DETAILS
Update 1.22 – There is a divide among the medical community regarding Ivermectin. Many believe it does nothing to reduce the symptoms of Covid while others such as FLCCC doctors still support Ivermectin’s use in concert with other drugs and supplements. I do not know the truth. I strongly believe that the government should have put the same emphasis on therapeutics as they did vaccines and that includes a rigorous study of Ivermectin. It is likely a high volume roll out of therapeutics coincident with the vaccines would have saved thousands of lives. Unlike with Ivermectin, there is broad agreement regarding the effectiveness of monoclonal antibodies. However, the government now states that of the three companies that manufacture monoclonal antibodies, only one company delivers a product that is effective against the Omicron variant and they therefore have rescinded the emergency use approval for the other two companies. No one should be surprised that the approved monoclonal antibodies are in extremely short supply.
For detailed information please study the data and information included in the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC) website.
Dr. Bruce Boros Ivermectin Protocol. Update 1.22 – please note this protocol continues to change. Please discuss with your own doctor.
Ivermectin 0.4mg x weight in kilograms single dose. If greater than 30 mg I split dose by 2 hours.
Z pack or doxycycline 100mg 2 times a day for 5 days. If pcr swab is negative I stop the antibiotic but continue the other meds
Famotidine 20 mg a day x 7 days
Vit C 500mg twice a day x 7 days
Vit D 4000u a day x7 days
Baby asa 81mg 1 a day x 7 days
ZINC 50mg a day x 7 days
Claritin 10mg daily if congested
Tylenol or ibuprofen as directed on the bottle
Robitussin DM or NyQuil for cough as directed on bottle
START ASAP EVEN BEFORE PCR TESTING RESULTS ARE BACK
I am in receipt of today’s email reiterating your reasons for closing public and private schools. I quote: “We are doing better because of the steps we have taken—all done with public health in the forefront of our decisions. We still need to reduce community transmission of the virus. When the State first shut down businesses and other organizations in March, we were averaging about four positive tests per day. Right now we are averaging about 70 cases each day, which is lower than the peak we experienced for daily positive tests–but still too high to take further steps in reopening.” Please answer the following questions at your earliest convenience. The ramifications of your decisions have significant negative consequences for our children and the community at large. Your words alone are no longer sufficient. We require facts.
What positivity rate is acceptable for opening especially considering the CDC references 5% as a benchmark. Please also note Governor Coumo gave jurisdictions approval today to open all schools also citing 5% as the benchmark.
Please stipulate what specific scientific studies upon which you have based your positivity benchmark.
Do you agree or disagree with these CDC statements that suggest the harm to students from closing schools outweighs the risk from covid. If you disagree please cite the specific scientific studies supporting your position.
You stated in the press conference Wednesday that the studies regarding transmission among children “are getting worse not better”. Please cite the specific studies which are guiding your decisions. There are studies throughout the world that contradict your words.
The Montgomery County Education Association encouraged union members to attend the National Day of Resistance on August 3, 2020. Demands of this well organized nationwide resistance movement are stated here. Please outline which of these demands you support. It is clear the teacher’s unions is opposed to charter schools, voucher programs and private schools.
We look forward to your responses and to the determination as to whether you have the legal right to close private schools. Meanwhile please consider “A Teacher’s Perspective”. If our leaders focused on all covid data rather than stoking fear with select, aggregate data, perhaps more of our teachers would follow their vocation instead of their fear.
In those couple days where it seemed my school may be closed, I felt like a major opportunity was stripped from me and all of the teachers at my school. Teaching is a vocation – not a job – and to be stripped of the opportunity in a time when it is needed most would be quite literally robbing me and others like me one of our rare opportunities to fully realize the purpose of our vocation. More importantly, it would have been robbing our students and families the opportunity to see so tangibly that we will fight for them even in foul weather. Teaching this year, no matter what we do, is going to suck in so many different ways but 5, 10, 20 years from now the kids who grow up will remember what its like for the adults in their lives to actually care. I personally remember very well when my own teachers volunteered to form human shields for us to walk to our cars during the DC sniper situation while many others in different schools complained that they shouldn’t be in school at all. Teaching typically isn’t a life or death profession and for the vast majority of the population, it still isn’t. But even it were – this is the hand we were dealt. Our vocation hasn’t changed just because it suddenly became more dangerous.
OPEN LETTER TO GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN, COUNTY EXECUTIVE MARC ELRICH AND DR TRAVIS GAYLES
I have had the opportunity to read your recent self-congratulatory missives regarding covid management. Several questions came to mind. Are the covid heroes the leaders who use the actual data to open to the maximum extent possible while protecting the vulnerable? The leaders who balance the fatalities and devastation caused by the lockdowns and school closures against covid risks? Or are the heroes the leaders who sit on the sidelines, opening to the minimum extent politically possible, waiting for the science to be determined by others? Those who delegate many of the critical decisions to others who are ill equipped to make these decisions? Those who cater to a fear soaked populace rather than leading them out of fear with facts? As the health, emotional and economic ramifications of the shutdown become clear, comprehensive covid data emerges and state and local budgets collapse, it is my belief that the real heroes will be those leaders who pushed to return their communities to normalcy as soon as possible regardless of the harping criticism from the media.
Evidence of true leadership would be public discussions of the pros and cons at each step, encouraging perspective not fear. Sadly we have seen none of that. Instead we have been served a steady diet of selective aggregate data designed to manipulate. Edicts are always accompanied by the now repellent phrase “based on science”. Which science? For example, the CDC strongly recommended schools open in September due to the increased risk associated with staying closed. Do you disagree with the science outlined by the CDC? Do you agree or disagree that suicides and drug overdoses have eclipsed covid deaths in high school age students? Is your science supplied by the teacher’s union?
Dr. Gayles, yesterday after Governor Hogan thankfully issued an order overriding your closure of MoCo private schools, you stated you had based the decision to close on recent statements by Dr. Birx. Did you accidentally misspeak or assume the citizens were not familiar with the source material? You stated that Dr. Birx suggested that schools should consider staying closed until community transmission has reduced but you failed to mention that the measure of reduced community transmission is a positivity rate under 5%. The positivity rate in MoCo and the State is 2.8% and 4.4%% respectively. The parents of those children who will OD or commit suicide as a result of your decision demand the real reason. All parents should revolt against the County’s incredible abuse of power regarding school closures and demand the State force the County to also open public schools.
With a virus as contagious as covid, everyone knew that cases would surge upon increased testing and relaxation of lockdowns. Why are you acting so surprised? Remember the original goal was to flatten the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed? Are you really so arrogant that you believe you can eliminate this virus with continued closures, roving bands of enforcers and enhanced mask guidelines in the absence of herd immunity achieved naturally or from a vaccine? Meanwhile you freely admit that the greatest transmission occurs at family and other private gatherings, things which you cannot control. Does anybody else see the flaw in governance? Ineffective overreach where covid does not spread easily and lack of personal responsibility where it does. It’s time we learn how to live with covid and protect ourselves.
Government can assist individuals assume responsibility through honest conversation on risk and avoidance strategies, not fear tactics and obvious manipulation supported by the media. As we have discovered, the citizens are likely to throw the baby out with the bath water when leaders engage in hypocritical behavior or when their motives are questionable. There have been countless examples of covid hypocrisy on the national and local stage. The latest national example is the attendance at John Lewis’s funeral which far exceeded 1 person or household per 200 sf. Which science on gatherings do you believe Mr. Elrich? Locally and nationally the politicians’ pandering response to the protests undermined everything they said subsequently. And the height of hypocrisy was the determination of what businesses and employees were essential and which were not. Who takes a hypocrite seriously? Nobody. It is never too late to be honest with the people, show respect for their intelligence and proceed to Phase 3. That is the only way we will be “in this together”.
MoCo does not have the data to evaluate risk effectively and the data they do have supports following the State’s guidelines. For example, many of the new cases are among young people. I asked MoCo what the hospitalization rate is by age. Because this is essential data to craft covid policy, I was shocked to learn MoCo does not have this data. People wait in food lines yet County decides to implement more stringent lockdowns than the State? Why? Is this public policy based on feelings or fact? Let’s review the data.
State positivity trended downward after going to Phase 2 in early June and has been reasonably consistent since mid-June. As of today, August 4, 2020, the positivity ratio is 4.44% at the State level and 2.82% in MoCo.
Even though case numbers have increased, daily fatalities have remained low and consistent since early July. Since transition to Phase 2, 83% of the folks in the State who have sadly died are over 60. This percentage is consistent with death rates throughout the pandemic.
While hospitalizations have increased slightly, ICU occupancy has remained relatively consistent since early July. Prior to early July, ICU usage was downtrending.
Approximately 60% of deaths in both the State and MoCo have occurred in nursing homes.
1.51% of Maryland residents have a confirmed positive test and 0.055% have died from covid. 1.68% of MoCo residents have a confirmed positive test and 0.071% have died from the disease. Data suggests that approximately 0.014% of folks 64 and under in Maryland have died from covid and 0.015% in MoCo. Does the media or any government official ever provide these numbers?
In summary, we should proceed to Phase 3, open public and private schools safely and assume personal responsibility for our own health. Anything else amounts to continued government malfeasance. If masks, physical distance and good hygiene are effective, there should be no impediment to fully opening. Each individual manages their own risk and elects whether to engage in an activity or not. As the courts ruled in Ohio, it is the consumer’s responsibility to decide whether to patronize an establishment, not the government’s. If young people, who since time immemorial believe they are invincible, ignore the edicts and catch covid, the risk of serious illness in this group is extremely low. Safety in multigenerational households will require more effort but it is those individuals’ responsibility to manage their households, not society at large. Vulnerable nursing home patients should continue to be protected and other at-risk individuals must remain vigilant. All counties should follow the State except in the case of an extreme local outbreak that overburdens the hospital system. Yes, some of us will still catch covid. We take risks every day. Open fully.
Continued protests are self-serving and will cause more damage to race relations. Yup I dared to say that. Continued protests have put our communities at risk. Yup I said that too. And I mean it.
The peaceful protestors provided cover for violent looters to destroy our communities already suffering from the lockdowns. A thinking protestor might put their neighborhoods above their overwhelming need to virtue signal and realize if they stopped so would the looters. But no, they blindly kept at it and the violence piled up.
Even worse are the politicians and talking heads who suggest this violence is justified rage. What pathetic drivel. How about telling that to the family of the retired sheriff who was murdered in St Louis by these vicious criminals. Or the folks of every color whose lives have been destroyed by gratuitous violence.
Those who suggest we need violence to open everyone’s eyes to racial disparities in this country are seriously misguided or worse. This will open everyone’s eyes for sure but not in the way they think. Our eyes are open to the fact that government either can’t or won’t protect us. Our eyes are open to the incredible stupidity of extended lockdowns. Our eyes are open to how quickly a mob can destroy everything that is good. Our eyes are open to the fact that we must be armed in case that mob comes our way. Our eyes are open to the twisted desire of those who seek to enflame race relations in this country rather than heal.
Sit down, watch the videos of the violence and consider if those images will help or hurt race relations. Just maybe your eyes will open and realize that you have been manipulated. Great job everyone. Really appreciate your lack of critical thought. As an aside, I am infinitely curious if the same folks who continued to protest knowing their message had been coopted are also the same folks who support the continued lockdowns. Newsflash, you are too selfish to be taken seriously.
So use your brains instead of allowing your emotions to be whipsawed by others. Stop taking to the streets until the thugs crawl back under their rocks. You are only making things worse.
Dear County Executive Elrich, Members of the County Council and Dr. Travis Gayles:
Balancing the impacts from a highly contagious virus and the shutdown is a difficult task and we appreciate your efforts to do so. While I understand the council’s primary goal is to save lives from covid unfortunately the decision to prolong the shutdown will put other lives at risk. While a letter could be devoted entirely to the negative impacts of the shutdowns (one of which is attached for your reference) suffice it to say that many people and businesses are seriously suffering. The data suggests that a balanced, targeted approach is possible.
During the press conference Wednesday, Mr. Elrich said his top two metrics for lifting the stay at home orders were total case numbers and ICU utilization rates. Mr. Elrich suggested that death rates are not going to be changed much by testing and contact tracing. He also stated that death rates are the hardest numbers to change. How can any metric have a higher priority than who dies from the disease? Does this suggest Mr. Elrich believes that regardless of what we do, the vulnerable will die from covid? Eventually we will all die of something, but a targeted approach can help protect the vulnerable from dying of covid and allow the rest of us to get back to work.
Who is at the greatest risk of dying from covid and might benefit the most from an effort to lower death rates? Nursing home patients. This group comprises 74% of the 465 total deaths in the county. But please also note that 85% of all deaths are folks over 65. Who has a low risk of dying from the disease? People under 65 especially those without underlying health conditions. Only 0.007% of county citizens under 65 have died from covid with or without underlying health conditions. What other name does this low risk group go by? The workforce.
Only total case and death numbers are provided in the dashboard which is not helpful for understanding risk or evaluating a targeted strategy. Deaths of nursing home patients and those over 65 with serious underlying conditions should be eliminated from any trends that will impact the decision to reopen. While the lives of nursing home patients are as important as any other life, these folks are not the ones who are shopping and operating businesses. Plus nursing homes are highly specialized environments that are not found in general office and retail. If it is not possible to segregate the data this way, please add charts to the dashboard for under and over 65 daily fatality rates and you will find as I did with Maryland data that the trend has been flat for over a month.
Data charts that only include nursing home stats should also be created to guide decisions and strategies to protect patients and staff. This segregated information will also allow the citizens and county to monitor results.
Hospitalizations are a key metric. The dashboard states that in order to reopen we must achieve 14 days of acute bed utilization rate of 70% or less of the total number of acute beds. We have had 0 days under 70% for acute beds. Are we to assume that if nothing changes we will have at least 14 more days before we can reopen? Please note that the top utilization rate for both covid and noncovid patients was 83% and only 6 days since April 30 have been over 80%. In other words, we have been able to accommodate all patients since the beginning of the pandemic with beds to spare.
Only a notable spike would cause a shortage of acute care and ICU beds. If a spike were to occur, when would that be? Well after reopening. Therefore waiting another 14 days to reopen achieves nothing but negative health, emotional and financial impacts to the citizens. Rather than passively watching the numbers, is there an approach that balances the needs of all of the citizens utilizing advance planning? For example, is it possible to transfer patients between hospitals to balance the load or develop a plan to increase beds immediately in the event of a spike?
Antibody testing and other situations such as the aircraft carrier Roosevelt suggest as many as 50% of covid positive people could be asymptomatic and far more of the population has been infected than indicated by current testing. This suggests that increased testing will result in increased cases for some undetermined period of time. While I completely support the County’s new programs to increase testing, even if 5% of the population is tested monthly, many folks could still be walking around unaware they have covid. The only way to manage that is through physical distance, good hygiene and masks when within 6’ of another. Why should small businesses be held hostage while testing ramps up when the same avoidance practices must be instituted regardless? Considering that county essential workers are not required to quarantine when they have been exposed to covid, the health department must have high confidence that these practices will stop the spread. Let’s extend this confidence to the entire workforce and reignite demand in the county.
The statement in the meeting Wednesday that when stay at home orders are lifted, the county might only allow stores to do curbside pickup was extremely troubling. Certainly all the members of the council have noticed that people are not staying home. They are out shopping in big box stores. Does science dictate that we are only safe in big corporate retail and at greater risk in small independent stores? No. Science does tell us how to stop the spread and small business owners are very capable of maintaining physical distance and instituting appropriate hygiene standards. Therefore, why should government officials decide which businesses live and which die? The County should stop giving big box retailers a crushing advantage over our small businesses and open fully.
Every day matters. Each minute we remain closed, the consequences will pile up exponentially from deferred medical treatments, unemployment and financial devastation. Suicide rates have increased as has substance abuse, physical abuse and depression. The fact that we now have food lines in the county speaks volumes. Small businesses are genuinely suffering which will have its own long term health impacts. Many businesses will not survive. Has the county examined what will happen to its tax base if small business is decimated?
Regardless of the council’s good intentions, continued stay at home orders will not deliver us from covid. We implore the council to proactively balance the needs of all the citizens and implement a targeted approach that protects the vulnerable and allows the healthy to assume personal responsibility and get back to work. Any business that can maintain physical distance guidelines should be allowed to open fully. The data supports that action and the new guidance from the CDC regarding the transmission of the virus should give all of us more confidence to move forward. And finally, please obtain input from the people of the community who will explain how both covid and the shutdown have impacted their lives and livelihood.
Let’s examine the curve that Governor Hogan has used to guide reopening decisions. Does it make sense? Here is my latest dive into the data and it is disturbing at best.
As of May 7, 2020 nursing home patients accounted for 57% of all corona virus deaths in Maryland. While there is much discussion of these numbers, we should take this one step further and also ask why any decision to reopen should be based on data that includes nursing home stats. While the lives of the elderly are just as important as any other life, they are not the folks who will restart this economy. Ideally two curves would be examined, daily death data for people over and under 65 net of nursing home stats. Unfortunately Maryland has not provided that data and is unlikely to do so. The best we can do is use the info that Maryland posts daily and create charts for under and over 60 and under and over 70.
To that end, I gathered the daily data by age group from April 1 to the present and with simple math determined the number of deaths each day. With that information, data was collated and charts created.
The trends speak volumes. The under 60 and 70 charts are not the ominous curve that Governor Hogan has used to maintain economy crushing stay at home orders. Instead we see flat death trends for those under 60 and a very slight uptick when include deaths between 60-69. The frequently discussed curve can only be found for those over 70. The bottom line? For the majority of the workforce, the curve has been essentially flat since at least April 15.
What do we learn from these charts? The first thing is that we have failed the elderly in nursing homes. The second is that Governor Hogan has based his decisions on the wrong curves. This data suggests that we should have changed course some time ago and put a serious strategy in place to protect the vulnerable and let the young kickstart this economy. But no, Hogan never looked at things this way or, if he did, he ignored it.
We will debate forever why Governor Hogan and others ignored commonsense strategies in favor of extended lockdowns even after they knew that the much feared curve only applied to the elderly. We will wonder why they never shared this information with the citizens. We will wonder why they simultaneously crushed small business, added untold debt and failed to protect the vulnerable. What a total failure of government. And how disgraceful that we let them do it.
Details
Even though the curve is flat for younger people, the corona virus is still with us. At every age, we must continue to maintain physical distance, use proper hygiene and stay away from the vulnerable.
Maryland only releases number of cases and deaths by age group. I did not chart cases because the testing rate has increased so it is not an apples and apples comparison. In my view, since the hospitals have capacity, the only measure that should guide decisions is how many people live and die from the disease.
On April 15, Maryland changed how they accounted for deaths because there was a reduction. From that point on Maryland included confirmed and “probable” deaths. For this reason I assume that death counts prior to April 15 included probable deaths. Because probable deaths are too ambiguous, the charts begin on April 16 and only include confirmed deaths.
Please note that the data Maryland publishes daily is silent on comorbidities. Therefore the data includes folks who died with or without a serious underlying condition. This is important because many have said we should stay shutdown because a large percentage of the population have a serious underlying condition. This does not appear to be a valid argument because the data shows that there is a flat trend for those under 60 regardless. Between 60 and 70, I suspect underlying conditions play a larger role but without more data it is difficult to speculate. Ideally, we would know how many people died in each age group with a comorbidity.
It would also be excellent if we knew how many people with underlying health conditions survived corona virus.
Does someone have control of Governor Hogan? A big corporate winner in the corona games? A myopic medical advisor? His campaign manager? His words are right but his actions are wrong. It is perplexing.
For example, Maryland stonewalled the release of nursing home data until last week. Perhaps it is because nursing home deaths comprise 55% of the total deaths in Maryland. While this raises many questions on the management of aggregate care facilities, it also raises a serious question about data. Hogan has stated he will only reopen after 14 days of flattened or declining hospitalization and death trends. Which trends? Trend curves that include nursing home data? That doesn’t make sense. Will nursing home patients be on the front line of our economic restart? No. Therefore only trends that include the demographics of those who will kick start demand and the workforce should be included. Nursing home trends should only dictate safety guidelines for nursing homes.
To that end, Maryland should immediately release case, hospitalization and death trends for people 65 and under, net of nursing home data, with and without underlying conditions. The citizens have the right to follow the trends that impact their lives. Aside from evaluating Hogan’s performance, this data will mitigate fear by outlining the actual corona risk to the new frontline assuming proper physical distance and hygiene. Certainly this is not a novel thought. It is, however, an important one and it is disturbing that it hasn’t been considered publicly.
Along these same lines, data from highly specialized environments, such as poultry plants should result in unique safety requirements applicable to those businesses. Under no circumstances should data from these locations influence the reopening of the rest of the state.
Governor Hogan stated “there is nothing more important to me than getting our economy and our people back on their feet”. If this were true, why hasn’t he examined the appropriate trends regionally? Some areas probably already have 14 days of flattening if indeed there ever was a curve. Could portions of the eastern shore and the west go to phase 2 now with strict guidelines in place?
A leader whose top priority is keeping citizens safe from both the virus and an economic meltdown would dispense with the benevolent dictator schtick. His actions are anything but benevolent to small business. Hogan clearly feels empowered to willfully kill one business over another. For example, why has Hogan allowed people to buy flooring at Home Depot but not at a small independently owned business? Why does Hogan insist that you can only buy spice at a corporate grocery store but not at a small business dedicated to spice? We don’t need 14 days of anything to open these stores up, they should open now.
At this point in the outbreak, a leader dedicated to reopening would also be brutally honest about the consequences of the stay at home orders. Hogan barely mentions them. Based on what is known now about the virus, if the public balanced current corona risks against the risks of the shutdown, they would demand an immediate, safe opening of all business that can maintain physical distance and/or implement hygiene standards known to stop the spread. For those who only watch nonstop corona news or avoid all news, let’s hit a few highlights. Note each item below results in its own cascade of serious additional consequences. Maryland faces an estimated 2.8 billion shortfall. Over 30 million unemployed. Loss of life due to delayed health care and suicide. Sharp decline in economic activity and consumer confidence. 401ks in the tank. A frightening surge in credit card, rent and mortgage defaults. Hotels at 20% capacity if open. Travel and airline industries crushed. Manufacturing plants shuttered or crippled. Hospitals hemorrhage cash and lay off tens of thousands jeopardizing our health care industry. Empty storefronts and failed businesses. Restaurants gone. Livestock slaughtered. Troubling international incidents. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, plummeted at a 7.6% rate in the first quarter, the most since 1980. Economy shrank at 4.8% rate in the first quarter. The reduction in second quarter GDP will likely be staggering. US government set to borrow a record $2.99 trillion in the second quarter. The American dream crushed for many. The list goes on and on and this is just the beginning. For those who still claim the demand to reopen is for our convenience you are wrong, it is for our lives, figurative and literal.
In closing I ask Maryland citizens, does it make sense that a reopen strategy is strongly influenced by what is happening in nursing homes? Should our reopening be delayed due to outbreaks in highly specialized environments that demand unique safety guidelines? Should we ignore that the majority of states have begun the process to reopen? They can’t all be wrong. Should Hogan have the right to decide which businesses live and which die when either can be safe? Why should we accept arbitrary edicts that have zero impact on the spread of corona? Does it make sense to delay reopening when commonsense approaches that protect the vulnerable are possible? Does it make sense to delay when the consequences of doing so present a clear and present danger? No. With the curve flattened and hospital capacity sufficient, none of this makes sense which brings me back to the beginning. Who is in control?
The purpose of this letter is to outline questions and comments regarding the press conference Friday 4/24/20. Assertions that small business has been a top priority are called into question by your actions. If equal weight had been placed on the physical, mental and economic health of all of the citizens, a balanced approach would have been pursued. Evidence of such an approach would have been the creation of a task force on day 1 that represented the viewpoints of not only epidemiologists and the medical community but also business, banking and mental health. Instead a lopsided, reactionary strategy based on faulty “science” was implemented leaving immeasurable human and financial destruction in its wake.
This single focused strategy also gave rise to government gods recklessly choosing who lives and dies, who gets a paycheck and who doesn’t. Home Depot is safe but hundreds of other businesses that could manage 6’ spacing are unsafe? A hair salon can provide services to an essential person with papers but no one else? Are essential people and businesses somehow immune from covid-19? Why are all state employees still receiving paychecks when the state’s income has been decimated?
Missing from the press conference was any discussion of real data. I presume the team is familiar with the studies emerging that suggest infection is far more widespread resulting in a death rate under 1%? Or does the team focus more on the attacks leveled at these studies instead of the possibilities they suggest? Has an attempt been made to estimate the actual death rate considering asymptomatic case rates may be 50% or greater? Let’s assume the death rate is around 0.6% as some suggest. Would you have supported a complete destruction of demand if we knew this on March 1? Doubtful.
But what is done is done. How do we move forward and protect the vulnerable from the very infectious covid-19 and the rest of us from the government gods? I am very happy to hear that business minds have now been added to the team because I fear that if it were left to the medical professionals, stay at home orders would be in place until a vaccine was available. Can commonsense steps be taken to open many businesses now? Yes.
A simple approach would focus on the existing demographic data for deaths and ICU admissions. As of today there are 929 total deaths in Maryland and 551 patients in ICU. (For perspective please note that that 50,668 Marylanders died in 2018 from all causes.) In the press conference we learned a high percentage of these numbers represent nursing home patients. While these lives are as valuable as any other life, people in nursing homes are not the ones shopping and operating businesses. What about the workforce? How many of the deaths were people under 65 without underlying health conditions? Using percentages from various studies this number is probably between 17 and 42 people out of a population of 6,043,000.
This data suggests government should stop playing god and immediately allow any business to reopen that can adjust to physical distance guidelines. Protect the vulnerable and allow everyone else to go back to work. Each individual chooses. Anyone uncomfortable leaving the house can remain there. Open public spaces with physical distance guidelines. Phase in the remaining businesses and events as soon as possible based on real data. Would infections spike? Probably. But once again, what is the hospitalization rate for those under 65 without underlying conditions? Balance this threat against the devastating impact of staying closed another two weeks.
Every day matters. Each minute we remain closed, the consequences will pile up exponentially. All lives matter. Waiting is disaster. It is absurd to rely on continued federal bailouts. It’s time to save ourselves both from the virus and the government’s reaction to it. If we start the process now, we will be one day closer to the oft discussed herd immunity and one day further from toxic herd fear.
During the press conference, the lack of any attempt to dispel fear was disturbing. Some would suggest that a healthy level of fear aids the government gods in their ability to control people. How do I know fear levels are sky high and people’s brains paralyzed? Simply observe how many people wear a mask when engaged in solitary activities. The fear will subside, however, as the damage mounts. There will be serious questions. Even now folks wonder why you listen to federal guidelines when they don’t make sense. And if commonsense is absent from Maryland’s strategy, it won’t be long before we wonder why we should listen to you.
