Tag: Covid-19

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Money vs Lives

December 21, 2020

By Sue Seboda

Money vs lives. Remember that?  Anyone who advocated for a balanced approach to Covid had that phrase viciously thrown in their faces in a high-pitched social media frenzy.  The money vs lives mantra was generated and propagated by the lockdown proponents, adopted as gospel by a fear soaked populace and used strategically to silence common sense among the citizens and local politicians. Among other things, this weaponization of Covid was used to justify mail in voting and solidify power structures.  But today let’s steep ourselves in the irony of another goal, the most basic of them all, money.  

The reality of the money vs lives mantra is far different from the lockdown or die message in the early days of Covid.  It’s Big Pharma money vs our lives.  We little people are clearly expendable unless Big Pharma and their clingons can make a bundle.  What other explanation is there for the incurious attitude of the western world to safe, inexpensive, off patent, readily available and potentially effective ivermectin?  Why are front line doctors who have firsthand experience with ivermectin’s ability to reduce mortality and hospitalization ridiculed, criticized and fired?  It has been known since April that ivermectin has notable potential as a Covid therapeutic.  So why do the FDA, NIH and CDC say this inexpensive, off patent drug should not be used until further studies are done?  Why haven’t these studies already been concluded as has been done with vaccines and expensive drugs that can be patented?   It’s simple, there is not enough money in it to get Big Pharma’s attention.  

For those who have never heard of ivermectin, it is an antiparasitic drug initially developed for animals in the 1970s. During the 1980s it was discovered that ivermectin was highly effective for certain parasites in humans.  More than 3 billion doses have been prescribed (many donated by Merck) since the 1980s confirming its safe human use.  Because in vitro studies have shown ivermectin to be a potentially potent antiviral agent as well, Leon Caly et al conducted an in vitro analysis of ivermectin’s effectiveness against Covid, releasing results in April 2020.  The April study was widely criticized because in vitro doses were higher than what is considered safe for human use.  Regardless some countries began treating Covid patients with ivermectin at safe dosages achieving notable reductions in mortality and hospitalizations.  In the US a handful of doctors began using the drug with success even as the FDA, NIH and CDC continued to recommend against its use until rigorous clinical trials were conducted.  

I recently became aware of ivermectin due to the grassroots efforts of Dr. Bruce Boros in Key West, FL.  His success with the drug in treating Covid patients is notable.  His disgust with the medical community for lack of interest in ivermectin is palpable.  Dr. Boros first tried ivermectin on a hospitalized patient with 88% oxygen who was headed towards a ventilator, and therefore a high chance of death.  After two doses of ivermectin, the patient’s downward trend was reversed and his lungs began to clear.  This patient fully recovered.  Dr. Boros has since treated approximately 160 Covid patients with ivermectin resulting in zero hospitalizations.  He begins an ivermectin protocol immediately, even before PCR test results are returned since the earlier ivermectin is introduced, the sooner the viral replication is impeded providing the patient with the best chance to avoid serious illness and death.  

Further research led to Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC) and Dr Pierre Kory who testified before the Senate Homeland Security committee on December 8, 2020.  To potentially save your life or someone else’s, please make the effort to read his presentation or watch the video.  An excerpt:  “And so, it is with great pride as well as significant optimism, that I am here to report that our group, led by Professor Paul E. Marik, has developed a highly effective protocol for preventing and early treatment of COVID-19. In the last 3-4 months, emerging publications provide conclusive data on the profound efficacy of the anti-parasite, anti-viral drug, anti- inflammatory agent called ivermectin in all stages of the disease. Our protocol was created only recently, after we identified these data. Nearly all studies are demonstrating the therapeutic potency and safety of ivermectin in preventing transmission and progression of illness in nearly all who take the drug.” 

“People are dying at unacceptable and untold rates. I am a lung and ICU specialist, and all I do right now is take care of COVID-19 patients dying of breathlessness in ICUs. By the time they get to the ICU, it is nearly impossible to save most patients…. I don’t know how much longer I can do this, especially knowing that it will all be needless death from here on out, given there is a readily available solution. A solution that cannot be dismissed or ignored. There is a critical need to inform health care providers in this country and the world. The leadership of our governmental health care agencies has a great responsibility here. All we ask is for the NIH, the CDC, and the FDA to conduct a rapid review of the literature reviewed in this presentation and provide guidance to the country’s health care providers.”  

In addition to Dr. Kory’s testimony, please listen or read the Chairman’s (Senator Ron Johnson) and the ranking member’s (Senator Gary Peters) opening statements.  Senator Johnson cannot understand why those who would attempt to implement early treatments are blocked and vilified.  Senator Peters displays the worst form of politics while accusing Dr. Kory of a political gambit.  “Sadly, it appears that today’s hearing will follow the same path, playing politics with public health, and will not give us the information we need to tackle this crisis.”  Reprehensible. 

Meanwhile according to Dr. Kory “the last treatment recommendation on ivermectin is from August 27th where on the NIH website, they recommended that ivermectin only be used in clinical trials and they based that recommendation as “expert opinion” only given the lack of clinical studies at the time.” Since the hearing and the release of FLCCC’s findings?  Crickets. 

While caution is an essential component of drug approval, my uneducated mind suggests there are serious ethical concerns with clinical trials considering the results of previous ivermectin trials.  Would you want to be in the placebo group knowing that all studies to date show lower mortality with ivermectin?  Politicians like Senator Peters have blood on their hands. As do the media outlets who attacked and attempted to silence Dr. Kory before he even spoke.  As do the FDA, CDC and NIH who are mired in their own bureaucracy and Big Pharma funding.  Yes, Big Pharma pays these agencies to conduct studies on their drugs of choice. Has Big Pharma stepped up to assist in the study of ivermectin?  No.  Have any of the massive pork relief bills Congress has passed include study of ivermectin? No (but the Kennedy Center got more money). An in depth review of the motives of Big Pharma, politicians, the media and social media platforms to subvert information on ivermectin is warranted in the event it goes beyond the typical “follow the money” story.  

Ivermectin is not a cure for Covid.  It is a promising therapeutic and preventative measure against Covid.  How many more people will die or experience lifelong problems from this virus because there isn’t enough money involved for Big Pharma and the medical establishment to get excited about ivermectin.  Yes, indeed, its money vs lives.  Their money and our lives.  Wake up people before it is too late.  

DETAILS

  • Update 1.22 – There is a divide among the medical community regarding Ivermectin. Many believe it does nothing to reduce the symptoms of Covid while others such as FLCCC doctors still support Ivermectin’s use in concert with other drugs and supplements. I do not know the truth. I strongly believe that the government should have put the same emphasis on therapeutics as they did vaccines and that includes a rigorous study of Ivermectin. It is likely a high volume roll out of therapeutics coincident with the vaccines would have saved thousands of lives. Unlike with Ivermectin, there is broad agreement regarding the effectiveness of monoclonal antibodies. However, the government now states that of the three companies that manufacture monoclonal antibodies, only one company delivers a product that is effective against the Omicron variant and they therefore have rescinded the emergency use approval for the other two companies. No one should be surprised that the approved monoclonal antibodies are in extremely short supply.
  • For detailed information please study the data and information included in the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC) website.  
  • Dr. Bruce Boros Ivermectin Protocol. Update 1.22 – please note this protocol continues to change. Please discuss with your own doctor.
    • Ivermectin 0.4mg x weight in kilograms single dose. If greater than 30 mg I split dose by 2 hours. 
    • Z pack or doxycycline 100mg 2 times a day for 5 days. If pcr swab is negative I stop the antibiotic but continue the other meds
    • Famotidine 20 mg a day x 7 days
    • Vit C 500mg twice a day x 7 days
    • Vit D 4000u a day x7 days
    • Baby asa 81mg 1 a day x 7 days
    • ZINC 50mg a day x 7 days
    • Claritin 10mg daily if congested
    • Tylenol or ibuprofen as directed on the bottle
    • Robitussin DM or NyQuil for cough as directed on bottle
    • START ASAP EVEN BEFORE PCR TESTING RESULTS ARE BACK
    • Do not use if pregnant or lactating
    • No alcohol
    • Care and testing if taking anti coagulants
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Open Letter to County Executive Elrich and Dr. Gayles

By Sue Seboda, August 7, 2020

Time for a Chat

I am in receipt of today’s email reiterating your reasons for closing public and private schools.  I quote: “We are doing better because of the steps we have taken—all done with public health in the forefront of our decisions. We still need to reduce community transmission of the virus. When the State first shut down businesses and other organizations in March, we were averaging about four positive tests per day.  Right now we are averaging about 70 cases each day, which is lower than the peak we experienced for daily positive tests–but still too high to take further steps in reopening.”   Please answer the following questions at your earliest convenience. The ramifications of your decisions have significant negative consequences for our children and the community at large. Your words alone are no longer sufficient. We require facts.

  • What positivity rate is acceptable for opening especially considering the CDC references 5% as a benchmark.  Please also note Governor Coumo gave jurisdictions approval today to open all schools also citing 5% as the benchmark.
  • Please stipulate what specific scientific studies upon which you have based your positivity benchmark.  
  • Do you agree or disagree with these CDC statements that suggest the harm to students from closing schools outweighs the risk from covid.  If you disagree please cite the specific scientific studies supporting your position.   
  • You stated in the press conference Wednesday that the studies regarding transmission among children “are getting worse not better”.  Please cite the specific studies which are guiding your decisions.  There are studies throughout the world that contradict your words.  
  • The Montgomery County Education Association encouraged union members to attend the National Day of Resistance on August 3, 2020.  Demands of this well organized nationwide resistance movement are stated here.  Please outline which of these demands you support.  It is clear the teacher’s unions is opposed to charter schools, voucher programs and private schools.  

We look forward to your responses and to the determination as to whether you have the legal right to close private schools.  Meanwhile please consider “A Teacher’s Perspective”.  If our leaders focused on all covid data rather than stoking fear with select, aggregate data, perhaps more of our teachers would follow their vocation instead of their fear.  

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A Teacher’s Perspective

Enlightenment

By Guest Author Bill Whalen, August 5, 2020

In those couple days where it seemed my school may be closed, I felt like a major opportunity was stripped from me and all of the teachers at my school. Teaching is a vocation – not a job – and to be stripped of the opportunity in a time when it is needed most would be quite literally robbing me and others like me one of our rare opportunities to fully realize the purpose of our vocation. More importantly, it would have been robbing our students and families the opportunity to see so tangibly that we will fight for them even in foul weather. Teaching this year, no matter what we do, is going to suck in so many different ways but 5, 10, 20 years from now the kids who grow up will remember what its like for the adults in their lives to actually care. I personally remember very well when my own teachers volunteered to form human shields for us to walk to our cars during the DC sniper situation while many others in different schools complained that they shouldn’t be in school at all. Teaching typically isn’t a life or death profession and for the vast majority of the population, it still isn’t. But even it were – this is the hand we were dealt. Our vocation hasn’t changed just because it suddenly became more dangerous.

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BREAK THE WEB

By Sue Seboda, August 4, 2020

OPEN LETTER TO GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN, COUNTY EXECUTIVE MARC ELRICH AND DR TRAVIS GAYLES

I have had the opportunity to read your recent self-congratulatory missives regarding covid management.  Several questions came to mind.  Are the covid heroes the leaders who use the actual data to open to the maximum extent possible while protecting the vulnerable?  The leaders who balance the fatalities and devastation caused by the lockdowns and school closures against covid risks?  Or are the heroes the leaders who sit on the sidelines, opening to the minimum extent politically possible, waiting for the science to be determined by others?  Those who delegate many of the critical decisions to others who are ill equipped to make these decisions?  Those who cater to a fear soaked populace rather than leading them out of fear with facts?  As the health, emotional and economic ramifications of the shutdown become clear, comprehensive covid data emerges and state and local budgets collapse, it is my belief that the real heroes will be those leaders who pushed to return their communities to normalcy as soon as possible regardless of the harping criticism from the media.  

Evidence of true leadership would be public discussions of the pros and cons at each step, encouraging perspective not fear.  Sadly we have seen none of that.  Instead we have been served a steady diet of selective aggregate data designed to manipulate.  Edicts are always accompanied by the now repellent phrase “based on science”.  Which science?  For example, the CDC strongly recommended schools open in September due to the increased risk associated with staying closed.  Do you disagree with the science outlined by the CDC?  Do you agree or disagree that suicides and drug overdoses have eclipsed covid deaths in high school age students?  Is your science supplied by the teacher’s union?  

Dr. Gayles, yesterday after Governor Hogan thankfully issued an order overriding your closure of MoCo private schools, you stated you had based the decision to close on recent statements by Dr. Birx.  Did you accidentally misspeak or assume the citizens were not familiar with the source material?  You stated that Dr. Birx suggested that schools should consider staying closed until community transmission has reduced but you failed to mention that the measure of reduced community transmission is a positivity rate under 5%.  The positivity rate in MoCo and the State is 2.8% and 4.4%% respectively.  The parents of those children who will OD or commit suicide as a result of your decision demand the real reason.  All parents should revolt against the County’s incredible abuse of power regarding school closures and demand the State force the County to also open public schools.  

With a virus as contagious as covid, everyone knew that cases would surge upon increased testing and relaxation of lockdowns.  Why are you acting so surprised?  Remember the original goal was to flatten the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed?  Are you really so arrogant that you believe you can eliminate this virus with continued closures, roving bands of enforcers and enhanced mask guidelines in the absence of herd immunity achieved naturally or from a vaccine? Meanwhile you freely admit that the greatest transmission occurs at family and other private gatherings, things which you cannot control.  Does anybody else see the flaw in governance?  Ineffective overreach where covid does not spread easily and lack of personal responsibility where it does.  It’s time we learn how to live with covid and protect ourselves.  

Government can assist individuals assume responsibility through honest conversation on risk and avoidance strategies, not fear tactics and obvious manipulation supported by the media.  As we have discovered, the citizens are likely to throw the baby out with the bath water when leaders engage in hypocritical behavior or when their motives are questionable.  There have been countless examples of covid hypocrisy on the national and local stage.  The latest national example is the attendance at John Lewis’s funeral which far exceeded 1 person or household per 200 sf.  Which science on gatherings do you believe Mr. Elrich?  Locally and nationally the politicians’ pandering response to the protests undermined everything they said subsequently.  And the height of hypocrisy was the determination of what businesses and employees were essential and which were not.  Who takes a hypocrite seriously?  Nobody.  It is never too late to be honest with the people, show respect for their intelligence and proceed to Phase 3.  That is the only way we will be “in this together”. 

MoCo does not have the data to evaluate risk effectively and the data they do have supports following the State’s guidelines.  For example, many of the new cases are among young people. I asked MoCo what the hospitalization rate is by age. Because this is essential data to craft covid policy, I was shocked to learn MoCo does not have this data. People wait in food lines yet County decides to implement more stringent lockdowns than the State? Why? Is this public policy based on feelings or fact? Let’s review the data.

  • State positivity trended downward after going to Phase 2 in early June and has been reasonably consistent since mid-June.  As of today, August 4, 2020, the positivity ratio is 4.44% at the State level and 2.82% in MoCo.
  • Daily case numbers have increased notably since early July.  
  • Even though case numbers have increased, daily fatalities have remained low and consistent since early July.  Since transition to Phase 2, 83% of the folks in the State who have sadly died are over 60.  This percentage is consistent with death rates throughout the pandemic.
  • While hospitalizations have increased slightly, ICU occupancy has remained relatively consistent since early July.  Prior to early July, ICU usage was downtrending.
  • Approximately 60% of deaths in both the State and MoCo have occurred in nursing homes. 
  • 1.51% of Maryland residents have a confirmed positive test and 0.055% have died from covid.  1.68% of MoCo residents have a confirmed positive test and 0.071% have died from the disease.  Data suggests that approximately 0.014% of folks 64 and under in Maryland have died from covid and 0.015% in MoCo.  Does the media or any government official ever provide these numbers?    

In summary, we should proceed to Phase 3, open public and private schools safely and assume personal responsibility for our own health.  Anything else amounts to continued government malfeasance.  If masks, physical distance and good hygiene are effective, there should be no impediment to fully opening.  Each individual manages their own risk and elects whether to engage in an activity or not.  As the courts ruled in Ohio, it is the consumer’s responsibility to decide whether to patronize an establishment, not the government’s.  If young people, who since time immemorial believe they are invincible, ignore the edicts and catch covid, the risk of serious illness in this group is extremely low.  Safety in multigenerational households will require more effort but it is those individuals’ responsibility to manage their households, not society at large.  Vulnerable nursing home patients should continue to be protected and other at-risk individuals must remain vigilant.  All counties should follow the State except in the case of an extreme local outbreak that overburdens the hospital system.  Yes, some of us will still catch covid.  We take risks every day.  Open fully. 

Sincerely,

Sue Seboda

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A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

Sue Seboda, May 7, 2020

Let’s examine the curve that Governor Hogan has used to guide reopening decisions.  Does it make sense?  Here is my latest dive into the data and it is disturbing at best.

As of May 7, 2020 nursing home patients accounted for 57% of all corona virus deaths in Maryland. While there is much discussion of these numbers, we should take this one step further and also ask why any decision to reopen should be based on data that includes nursing home stats. While the lives of the elderly are just as important as any other life, they are not the folks who will restart this economy. Ideally two curves would be examined, daily death data for people over and under 65 net of nursing home stats. Unfortunately Maryland has not provided that data and is unlikely to do so. The best we can do is use the info that Maryland posts daily and create charts for under and over 60 and under and over 70.

To that end, I gathered the daily data by age group from April 1 to the present and with simple math determined the number of deaths each day.  With that information, data was collated and charts created.

The trends speak volumes. The under 60 and 70 charts are not the ominous curve that Governor Hogan has used to maintain economy crushing stay at home orders. Instead we see flat death trends for those under 60 and a very slight uptick when include deaths between 60-69. The frequently discussed curve can only be found for those over 70. The bottom line? For the majority of the workforce, the curve has been essentially flat since at least April 15.

What do we learn from these charts? The first thing is that we have failed the elderly in nursing homes. The second is that Governor Hogan has based his decisions on the wrong curves. This data suggests that we should have changed course some time ago and put a serious strategy in place to protect the vulnerable and let the young kickstart this economy. But no, Hogan never looked at things this way or, if he did, he ignored it.

We will debate forever why Governor Hogan and others ignored commonsense strategies in favor of extended lockdowns even after they knew that the much feared curve only applied to the elderly. We will wonder why they never shared this information with the citizens. We will wonder why they simultaneously crushed small business, added untold debt and failed to protect the vulnerable. What a total failure of government. And how disgraceful that we let them do it.

Details

  • Even though the curve is flat for younger people, the corona virus is still with us. At every age, we must continue to maintain physical distance, use proper hygiene and stay away from the vulnerable.
  • Maryland only releases number of cases and deaths by age group.  I did not chart cases because the testing rate has increased so it is not an apples and apples comparison.  In my view, since the hospitals have capacity, the only measure that should guide decisions is how many people live and die from the disease.
  • On April 15, Maryland changed how they accounted for deaths because there was a reduction. From that point on Maryland included confirmed and “probable” deaths. For this reason I assume that death counts prior to April 15 included probable deaths.  Because probable deaths are too ambiguous, the charts begin on April 16 and only include confirmed deaths.  
  • Please note that the data Maryland publishes daily is silent on comorbidities.  Therefore the data includes folks who died with or without a serious underlying condition. This is important because many have said we should stay shutdown because a large percentage of the population have a serious underlying condition. This does not appear to be a valid argument because the data shows that there is a flat trend for those under 60 regardless. Between 60 and 70, I suspect underlying conditions play a larger role but without more data it is difficult to speculate. Ideally, we would know how many people died in each age group with a comorbidity. 
  • It would also be excellent if we knew how many people with underlying health conditions survived corona virus.
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Open Letter to the Citizens of Maryland, May 4, 2020

Does someone have control of Governor Hogan?  A big corporate winner in the corona games?  A myopic medical advisor?  His campaign manager?  His words are right but his actions are wrong.  It is perplexing.  

For example, Maryland stonewalled the release of nursing home data until last week.  Perhaps it is because nursing home deaths comprise 55% of the total deaths in Maryland.  While this raises many questions on the management of aggregate care facilities, it also raises a serious question about data.  Hogan has stated he will only reopen after 14 days of flattened or declining hospitalization and death trends.  Which trends?  Trend curves that include nursing home data?  That doesn’t make sense.  Will nursing home patients be on the front line of our economic restart?  No.  Therefore only trends that include the demographics of those who will kick start demand and the workforce should be included.  Nursing home trends should only dictate safety guidelines for nursing homes. 

To that end, Maryland should immediately release case, hospitalization and death trends for people 65 and under, net of nursing home data, with and without underlying conditions.  The citizens have the right to follow the trends that impact their lives.  Aside from evaluating Hogan’s performance, this data will mitigate fear by outlining the actual corona risk to the new frontline assuming proper physical distance and hygiene.  Certainly this is not a novel thought.  It is, however, an important one and it is disturbing that it hasn’t been considered publicly.  

Along these same lines, data from highly specialized environments, such as poultry plants should result in unique safety requirements applicable to those businesses.  Under no circumstances should data from these locations influence the reopening of the rest of the state. 

Governor Hogan stated “there is nothing more important to me than getting our economy and our people back on their feet”. If this were true, why hasn’t he examined the appropriate trends regionally?  Some areas probably already have 14 days of flattening if indeed there ever was a curve.  Could portions of the eastern shore and the west go to phase 2 now with strict guidelines in place?  

A leader whose top priority is keeping citizens safe from both the virus and an economic meltdown would dispense with the benevolent dictator schtick.  His actions are anything but benevolent to small business.  Hogan clearly feels empowered to willfully kill one business over another.  For example, why has Hogan allowed people to buy flooring at Home Depot but not at a small independently owned business?  Why does Hogan insist that you can only buy spice at a corporate grocery store but not at a small business dedicated to spice?  We don’t need 14 days of anything to open these stores up, they should open now.

At this point in the outbreak, a leader dedicated to reopening would also be brutally honest about the consequences of the stay at home orders.  Hogan barely mentions them. Based on what is known now about the virus, if the public balanced current corona risks against the risks of the shutdown, they would demand an immediate, safe opening of all business that can maintain physical distance and/or implement hygiene standards known to stop the spread.  For those who only watch nonstop corona news or avoid all news, let’s hit a few highlights.  Note each item below results in its own cascade of serious additional consequences.  Maryland faces an estimated 2.8 billion shortfall.  Over 30 million unemployed. Loss of life due to delayed health care and suicide. Sharp decline in economic activity and consumer confidence. 401ks in the tank.  A frightening surge in credit card, rent and mortgage defaults. Hotels at 20% capacity if open.  Travel and airline industries crushed. Manufacturing plants shuttered or crippled.  Hospitals hemorrhage cash and lay off tens of thousands jeopardizing our health care industry. Empty storefronts and failed businesses. Restaurants gone. Livestock slaughtered. Troubling international incidents.  Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, plummeted at a 7.6% rate in the first quarter, the most since 1980.  Economy shrank at 4.8% rate in the first quarter.  The reduction in second quarter GDP will likely be staggering. US government set to borrow a record $2.99 trillion in the second quarter. The American dream crushed for many.  The list goes on and on and this is just the beginning.  For those who still claim the demand to reopen is for our convenience you are wrong, it is for our lives, figurative and literal.  

In closing I ask Maryland citizens, does it make sense that a reopen strategy is strongly influenced by what is happening in nursing homes?  Should our reopening be delayed due to outbreaks in highly specialized environments that demand unique safety guidelines?  Should we ignore that the majority of states have begun the process to reopen?  They can’t all be wrong.  Should Hogan have the right to decide which businesses live and which die when either can be safe?  Why should we accept arbitrary edicts that have zero impact on the spread of corona? Does it make sense to delay reopening when commonsense approaches that protect the vulnerable are possible?  Does it make sense to delay when the consequences of doing so present a clear and present danger?  No.  With the curve flattened and hospital capacity sufficient, none of this makes sense which brings me back to the beginning.  Who is in control?  

Details

  • The photo of the slaughtered pigs was posted on facebook.  I removed the poster’s information for privacy purposes.  The airport photo is DCA.  

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Government Gods

April 28, 2020

By Sue Seboda

Open Letter to Governor Hogan

The purpose of this letter is to outline questions and comments regarding the press conference Friday 4/24/20.  Assertions that small business has been a top priority are called into question by your actions.  If equal weight had been placed on the physical, mental and economic health of all of the citizens, a balanced approach would have been pursued.  Evidence of such an approach would have been the creation of a task force on day 1 that represented the viewpoints of not only epidemiologists and the medical community but also business, banking and mental health.  Instead a lopsided, reactionary strategy based on faulty “science” was implemented leaving immeasurable human and financial destruction in its wake.  

This single focused strategy also gave rise to government gods recklessly choosing who lives and dies, who gets a paycheck and who doesn’t. Home Depot is safe but hundreds of other businesses that could manage 6’ spacing are unsafe?  A hair salon can provide services to an essential person with papers but no one else?  Are essential people and businesses somehow immune from covid-19?  Why are all state employees still receiving paychecks when the state’s income has been decimated?  

Missing from the press conference was any discussion of real data. I presume the team is familiar with the studies emerging that suggest infection is far more widespread resulting in a death rate under 1%?  Or does the team focus more on the attacks leveled at these studies instead of the possibilities they suggest?  Has an attempt been made to estimate the actual death rate considering asymptomatic case rates may be 50% or greater?  Let’s assume the death rate is around 0.6% as some suggest.  Would you have supported a complete destruction of demand if we knew this on March 1?  Doubtful. 

But what is done is done.  How do we move forward and protect the vulnerable from the very infectious covid-19 and the rest of us from the government gods?  I am very happy to hear that business minds have now been added to the team because I fear that if it were left to the medical professionals, stay at home orders would be in place until a vaccine was available.  Can commonsense steps be taken to open many businesses now?  Yes. 

A simple approach would focus on the existing demographic data for deaths and ICU admissions.  As of today there are 929 total deaths in Maryland and 551 patients in ICU.  (For perspective please note that that 50,668 Marylanders died in 2018 from all causes.)  In the press conference we learned a high percentage of these numbers represent nursing home patients.  While these lives are as valuable as any other life, people in nursing homes are not the ones shopping and operating businesses.  What about the workforce?  How many of the deaths were people under 65 without underlying health conditions?  Using percentages from various studies this number is probably between 17 and 42 people out of a population of 6,043,000.  

This data suggests government should stop playing god and immediately allow any business to reopen that can adjust to physical distance guidelines.  Protect the vulnerable and allow everyone else to go back to work.  Each individual chooses.  Anyone uncomfortable leaving the house can remain there.  Open public spaces with physical distance guidelines. Phase in the remaining businesses and events as soon as possible based on real data.  Would infections spike?  Probably.  But once again, what is the hospitalization rate for those under 65 without underlying conditions?  Balance this threat against the devastating impact of staying closed another two weeks.   

Every day matters. Each minute we remain closed, the consequences will pile up exponentially.  All lives matter.  Waiting is disaster.  It is absurd to rely on continued federal bailouts.  It’s time to save ourselves both from the virus and the government’s reaction to it. If we start the process now, we will be one day closer to the oft discussed herd immunity and one day further from toxic herd fear.  

During the press conference, the lack of any attempt to dispel fear was disturbing.  Some would suggest that a healthy level of fear aids the government gods in their ability to control people.   How do I know fear levels are sky high and people’s brains paralyzed?   Simply observe how many people wear a mask when engaged in solitary activities.  The fear will subside, however, as the damage mounts.  There will be serious questions.  Even now folks wonder why you listen to federal guidelines when they don’t make sense.  And if commonsense is absent from Maryland’s strategy, it won’t be long before we wonder why we should listen to you.   

Sincerely,

Sue Seboda

Annapolis, MD 

Details

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To Mask or not to Mask

Many, including me, are wondering how to handle the mask edicts from on high.  Are these requirements legal? Do cloth masks work?  This article focuses on the latter question. Below is the CDC guideline:

  • CDC is recommending the use of a cloth face covering to keep people who are infected but do not have symptoms from spreading COVID-19 to others.
  • The cloth face cover is meant to protect other people in case you are infected.
  • The cloth face coverings recommended are not surgical masks or N-95 respirators. Medical face masks are critical supplies that should be reserved for healthcare workers and other first responders, as recommended by CDC.
  • The cloth face cover is not a substitute for social distancing.
  • CDC continues to recommend that people try keep about 6 feet between themselves and others.

The corona virus is approximately .125 micron in diameter.  A micron is a unit of length equal to one millionth of a meter.  That is small.  However, it often travels in biological aerosols from coughing and sneezing which range in size from 0.5-3 micron.  

The N of the much discussed N95 mask means “Not resistant to oil”.  In other words, N95s protect against solid and liquid airborne particles that do not contain oil. The 95 means that it is 95% efficient in blocking down to 0.3 micron particles.  So a well fitted N95 mask will make you feel reasonably confident around someone with corona.  

Surgical masks offer less protection than N95. According to the FDA, “While a surgical mask may be effective in blocking splashes and large-particle droplets, a face mask, by design, does not filter or block very small particles in the air that may be transmitted by coughs, sneezes, or certain medical procedures. Surgical masks also do not provide complete protection from germs and other contaminants because of the loose fit between the surface of the face mask and your face.”

What about cloth masks?  My goal was to look for studies that occurred prior to the pandemic to avoid “studies” that are intended to influence behavior.  I found a study conducted in 2015 by a team from University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam and Beijing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “ The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of cloth masks to medical masks in hospital healthcare workers (HCWs). The null hypothesis is that there is no difference between medical masks and cloth masks.” Not surprisingly rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask group.  In the interest of transparency, please note the study was funded in part by 3M. 

Do cloth masks do anything?  I found a 2013 Cambridge University study which concluded “both masks significantly reduced the number of microorganisms expelled by volunteers, although the surgical mask was 3 times more effective in blocking transmission than the homemade mask.” While a cloth mask may not protect as well as a surgical mask, they do offer protection.

I spoke with a family member who has spent his life studying viruses.  While he is not fond of wearing a cloth mask, he says they are helpful but not perfectly effective.  He believes a big benefit of wearing a mask is keeping your hands off your face.  I also spoke with friends and family members in healthcare. The message was consistent. Masks offer protection. Cloth at the bottom, followed by surgical then N95. Wash hands frequently and do not touch your mask or your face.

So what’s the bottom line?  My initial reaction to the mask edict was “I will wear one when I see every politician wearing one and only if I can pick their fabric”.  After researching, I have modified my opinion and will wear a mask when social distancing (I hate that phrase) is not possible. Surgical masks are my first choice. Would I wear a mask outside biking or walking.  No. When I see masked folks engaged in solitary endeavors, my first thought is they should recalibrate their fear meter and realize breathing fresh air is a good thing.  But who am I to judge?  If it makes someone more comfortable to wear a mask, it might reduce stress and help with immunity. Would I enter a high risk area with a cloth mask? No. I would wear a surgical mask or N95 depending on the situation.

My conclusion is wearing a mask, cloth or otherwise, will reduce the risk. Perhaps on an equal footing is hand washing and not picking your nose. If masks will help get this country open, I am all in.  Heck, I will wear a bunch of them at once. Unfortunately for many of our so called leaders, masks will do nothing to overcome their urge to posture for federal money, pander to their base or use corona as a stepping stone to higher office.  It’s very sad for our country that it’s an election year.  

Details:

  • For references on data and actual studies, please click on links embedded above. 
  • Smart Air Filters has done studies on the efficiency of masks to block particles. I would recommend checking out their site if you are interested in a deeper dive.  They have also have tested various fabrics for their virus blocking abilities.
  • Both Smart Air and Vaniman utilize the 2013 Cambridge study in their material.  In Vaniman’s summary they only included the first sentence of the Cambridge conclusion and neglected to mention that surgical masks reduced transmission by a factor of 3 over cloth masks.  Interesting and a reminder that one always has to go to the source to find the whole story. 
  • N95 masks are not available to the public due to shortages.  Note that FDA approved the use of KN95 masks for healthcare workers.  These masks are often identical to N95 masks and are the “N95 equivalent” for medical usage in China.  According to Vaniman they offer the same filtration as N95 face masks with a rating of 95% at 0.3 Micron.  Vaniman has them available for May delivery if interested.  Comparison shopping might be a good idea. https://www.vaniman.com/product/k-n95-face-masks/
  • Here is the FDA’s guidance on cloth, surgical and N95 masks.  https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/n95-respirators-and-surgical-masks-face-masks.  They do not recommend N95 for the public.  I agree N95s should be reserved for medical personnel if they are in short supply. When N95s or KN95 become available, having some on hand for emergencies is a good idea regardless of what the FDA or CDC says. 

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Hey Nancy and Donald….

By Sue Seboda 4/18/20

Who is coloring your hair???  Are they standing 6’ away with a spray nozzle?  Or perhaps on a platform 6 feet above you, dropping buckets of color on your head?  Or maybe someone filled your gold plated toilet with color and gave you a swirly?

The vast majority of Americans are prohibited from visiting a hairdresser but the shutdown kings and queens are all perfectly quaffed?  We know you have gray hair Donald and Nancy.  How about you Gretchen, you’re 48 and probably have some gray creeping in? Was someone coloring your hair when you released the edict that paint sales were verboten? And let’s not forget all the fear mongering talking heads who paralyzed the country with their high drama and low perspective reporting.  How are you coloring your hair???

Oh I would love to ask these questions directly. But the answers are sadly predictable. “Me, in front of a camera with a botched DIY color job?  Heavens no.  I am so huge.  I am so important.  I am almighty. How could I possibly be subject to my own edicts?  Tsk, tsk you silly girl.”  

While the shutdown royalty are getting their hair cut and colored by the pros, what are we doing?  The panic over roots was palpable. Where to buy DIY color? How in the world to pick a color?  How to even find color? A run started the day the economy was shuttered.  But I got lucky.  My enterprising colorist delivered color to the door with a brush and gloves.  I left an envelop with cash.  Smart.  She saved us an enormous amount of money. Reinstalling all the mirrors I ripped out would have been a notable expense. 

Having the tools is one thing, using them is another.  Considering my proclivity towards making a mess, I figured the only safe place was a gravelly area outside.  As bad luck would have it, that area is also used by the neighborhood animals.  No doubt Nancy would love to join me in the litter box for a girls spa day. I brought a mirror outside, cut holes in a trash bag for my head and arms, mixed the color up and got down to business.  I have not looked at the back of my head and have no intention of doing so.  

Meanwhile Earl had to find a solution to avoid that homeless look going around. I think he got the last set of clippers in the world. You can’t even buy manscape clippers.  So I gave Earl my first ever buzz cut.  The first time was a bit scary.  The second time I left a little message on the back of his head….

Anyway, listen up all you who worship at the alter of false models, stop with the “we are all in this together” BS.  Clearly that’s not true. Your hypocrisy cheapens us all.

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Talking Bananas

Many years ago I wandered into the local vege/fruit store and found myself in a conversation with the bananas.  Sure I always talk to bananas at 7:00 am.  After a bit of verbal foreplay, the bananas then asked me to pick up one of their own. Why not, I said. The banana hijinks started slowly but each request was a bit more outlandish than the last.  Then the bananas asked that I use their friend as a microphone.  Warning, warning, warning. Then the bananas nicely suggested I put that banana in my mouth as if it were the most natural thing to do.  Their coaxing tone conveyed a hope beyond hope that I would stop laughing and comply.  Oh please, please, make my day, the bananas intoned.   I did not make the bananas’ day.  While I had been happy to play along, no good could come from sticking that banana in my mouth.  With much hilarity, people came out of their hidey holes and announced “You are on Candid Camera”.  It was one of the funniest 15 minutes of my life.  

I had not thought of my TV debut in years.  Then corona hit and the talking bananas came to mind.  My subconscious was onto it.  The incremental behavior control we have experienced is very similar to a candid camera set up. Whether intentional or not and without regard to merit, we have all been subjects of a mass social engineering experiment.  

The initial CDC gathering guidelines seemed reasonable. No gatherings with more than 250 people, keep the density down, no more than 10 people for vulnerable folks, no mass gatherings in areas of significant community spread.   Then on March 15, news organizations stated the CDC had revised their group guidelines to a maximum 50.  March 16, Trump issued guidelines limiting all gatherings to 10 people.  Everything tumbled from there.  Some prohibit gatherings of any size.  It is a crime to enter many public areas by yourself.  Bans can be found on swimming, wandering, boating, thinking.  Monroe County issued a quarantine order for anyone arriving from anywhere.  Break quarantine and go immediately to a corona filled jail. Michigan is an excellent example of the candid camera strategy. The governor recently issued an edict that carpeting, flooring, furniture, plants and paint were no longer essential and the citizens were forbidden to shop for these items in store.  Corona is one crafty bit of work.  How did the governor know corona now hides in paint cans? 

When will folks reach their banana in the mouth moment?  Many Americans already have.  Protests have occurred in Michigan, North Carolina and Kentucky with more on the books.  Sadly, there is yet another serious divide developing between the protestors and those who are happy to put the banana in their mouth.  It will be curious to see if this break mirrors the existing divides that are already tearing our country apart.  And I am quite interested in masks and how they relate to bananas…

Details

  • The initial CDC guideline referenced above can be found here. Interestingly I could find no official CDC document that revised the maximum size of gatherings from 250 to 50. News outlets reported this change.
  • A friend clued me into the concept of “incrementalism”.  I found it to be a worthwhile detour  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incrementalism.  If incrementalism was purposefully utilized, after reading the last sentence, the powers that be missed the mark.  “The political scientist Charles E. Lindblom developed Incrementalism in the mid 1950s. “The Science of Muddling Through” (1959), was an essay Lindblom wrote to help policymakers understand why they needed to consider a different approach when making policy changes. The goal for the new perspective of Incrementalism was for policy makers to avoid making changes before they really engaged and rationally thought through the issue.[3]”