Tag: Governor Larry Hogan

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BREAK THE WEB

By Sue Seboda, August 4, 2020

OPEN LETTER TO GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN, COUNTY EXECUTIVE MARC ELRICH AND DR TRAVIS GAYLES

I have had the opportunity to read your recent self-congratulatory missives regarding covid management.  Several questions came to mind.  Are the covid heroes the leaders who use the actual data to open to the maximum extent possible while protecting the vulnerable?  The leaders who balance the fatalities and devastation caused by the lockdowns and school closures against covid risks?  Or are the heroes the leaders who sit on the sidelines, opening to the minimum extent politically possible, waiting for the science to be determined by others?  Those who delegate many of the critical decisions to others who are ill equipped to make these decisions?  Those who cater to a fear soaked populace rather than leading them out of fear with facts?  As the health, emotional and economic ramifications of the shutdown become clear, comprehensive covid data emerges and state and local budgets collapse, it is my belief that the real heroes will be those leaders who pushed to return their communities to normalcy as soon as possible regardless of the harping criticism from the media.  

Evidence of true leadership would be public discussions of the pros and cons at each step, encouraging perspective not fear.  Sadly we have seen none of that.  Instead we have been served a steady diet of selective aggregate data designed to manipulate.  Edicts are always accompanied by the now repellent phrase “based on science”.  Which science?  For example, the CDC strongly recommended schools open in September due to the increased risk associated with staying closed.  Do you disagree with the science outlined by the CDC?  Do you agree or disagree that suicides and drug overdoses have eclipsed covid deaths in high school age students?  Is your science supplied by the teacher’s union?  

Dr. Gayles, yesterday after Governor Hogan thankfully issued an order overriding your closure of MoCo private schools, you stated you had based the decision to close on recent statements by Dr. Birx.  Did you accidentally misspeak or assume the citizens were not familiar with the source material?  You stated that Dr. Birx suggested that schools should consider staying closed until community transmission has reduced but you failed to mention that the measure of reduced community transmission is a positivity rate under 5%.  The positivity rate in MoCo and the State is 2.8% and 4.4%% respectively.  The parents of those children who will OD or commit suicide as a result of your decision demand the real reason.  All parents should revolt against the County’s incredible abuse of power regarding school closures and demand the State force the County to also open public schools.  

With a virus as contagious as covid, everyone knew that cases would surge upon increased testing and relaxation of lockdowns.  Why are you acting so surprised?  Remember the original goal was to flatten the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed?  Are you really so arrogant that you believe you can eliminate this virus with continued closures, roving bands of enforcers and enhanced mask guidelines in the absence of herd immunity achieved naturally or from a vaccine? Meanwhile you freely admit that the greatest transmission occurs at family and other private gatherings, things which you cannot control.  Does anybody else see the flaw in governance?  Ineffective overreach where covid does not spread easily and lack of personal responsibility where it does.  It’s time we learn how to live with covid and protect ourselves.  

Government can assist individuals assume responsibility through honest conversation on risk and avoidance strategies, not fear tactics and obvious manipulation supported by the media.  As we have discovered, the citizens are likely to throw the baby out with the bath water when leaders engage in hypocritical behavior or when their motives are questionable.  There have been countless examples of covid hypocrisy on the national and local stage.  The latest national example is the attendance at John Lewis’s funeral which far exceeded 1 person or household per 200 sf.  Which science on gatherings do you believe Mr. Elrich?  Locally and nationally the politicians’ pandering response to the protests undermined everything they said subsequently.  And the height of hypocrisy was the determination of what businesses and employees were essential and which were not.  Who takes a hypocrite seriously?  Nobody.  It is never too late to be honest with the people, show respect for their intelligence and proceed to Phase 3.  That is the only way we will be “in this together”. 

MoCo does not have the data to evaluate risk effectively and the data they do have supports following the State’s guidelines.  For example, many of the new cases are among young people. I asked MoCo what the hospitalization rate is by age. Because this is essential data to craft covid policy, I was shocked to learn MoCo does not have this data. People wait in food lines yet County decides to implement more stringent lockdowns than the State? Why? Is this public policy based on feelings or fact? Let’s review the data.

  • State positivity trended downward after going to Phase 2 in early June and has been reasonably consistent since mid-June.  As of today, August 4, 2020, the positivity ratio is 4.44% at the State level and 2.82% in MoCo.
  • Daily case numbers have increased notably since early July.  
  • Even though case numbers have increased, daily fatalities have remained low and consistent since early July.  Since transition to Phase 2, 83% of the folks in the State who have sadly died are over 60.  This percentage is consistent with death rates throughout the pandemic.
  • While hospitalizations have increased slightly, ICU occupancy has remained relatively consistent since early July.  Prior to early July, ICU usage was downtrending.
  • Approximately 60% of deaths in both the State and MoCo have occurred in nursing homes. 
  • 1.51% of Maryland residents have a confirmed positive test and 0.055% have died from covid.  1.68% of MoCo residents have a confirmed positive test and 0.071% have died from the disease.  Data suggests that approximately 0.014% of folks 64 and under in Maryland have died from covid and 0.015% in MoCo.  Does the media or any government official ever provide these numbers?    

In summary, we should proceed to Phase 3, open public and private schools safely and assume personal responsibility for our own health.  Anything else amounts to continued government malfeasance.  If masks, physical distance and good hygiene are effective, there should be no impediment to fully opening.  Each individual manages their own risk and elects whether to engage in an activity or not.  As the courts ruled in Ohio, it is the consumer’s responsibility to decide whether to patronize an establishment, not the government’s.  If young people, who since time immemorial believe they are invincible, ignore the edicts and catch covid, the risk of serious illness in this group is extremely low.  Safety in multigenerational households will require more effort but it is those individuals’ responsibility to manage their households, not society at large.  Vulnerable nursing home patients should continue to be protected and other at-risk individuals must remain vigilant.  All counties should follow the State except in the case of an extreme local outbreak that overburdens the hospital system.  Yes, some of us will still catch covid.  We take risks every day.  Open fully. 

Sincerely,

Sue Seboda

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Open Letter to the Citizens of Maryland, May 4, 2020

Does someone have control of Governor Hogan?  A big corporate winner in the corona games?  A myopic medical advisor?  His campaign manager?  His words are right but his actions are wrong.  It is perplexing.  

For example, Maryland stonewalled the release of nursing home data until last week.  Perhaps it is because nursing home deaths comprise 55% of the total deaths in Maryland.  While this raises many questions on the management of aggregate care facilities, it also raises a serious question about data.  Hogan has stated he will only reopen after 14 days of flattened or declining hospitalization and death trends.  Which trends?  Trend curves that include nursing home data?  That doesn’t make sense.  Will nursing home patients be on the front line of our economic restart?  No.  Therefore only trends that include the demographics of those who will kick start demand and the workforce should be included.  Nursing home trends should only dictate safety guidelines for nursing homes. 

To that end, Maryland should immediately release case, hospitalization and death trends for people 65 and under, net of nursing home data, with and without underlying conditions.  The citizens have the right to follow the trends that impact their lives.  Aside from evaluating Hogan’s performance, this data will mitigate fear by outlining the actual corona risk to the new frontline assuming proper physical distance and hygiene.  Certainly this is not a novel thought.  It is, however, an important one and it is disturbing that it hasn’t been considered publicly.  

Along these same lines, data from highly specialized environments, such as poultry plants should result in unique safety requirements applicable to those businesses.  Under no circumstances should data from these locations influence the reopening of the rest of the state. 

Governor Hogan stated “there is nothing more important to me than getting our economy and our people back on their feet”. If this were true, why hasn’t he examined the appropriate trends regionally?  Some areas probably already have 14 days of flattening if indeed there ever was a curve.  Could portions of the eastern shore and the west go to phase 2 now with strict guidelines in place?  

A leader whose top priority is keeping citizens safe from both the virus and an economic meltdown would dispense with the benevolent dictator schtick.  His actions are anything but benevolent to small business.  Hogan clearly feels empowered to willfully kill one business over another.  For example, why has Hogan allowed people to buy flooring at Home Depot but not at a small independently owned business?  Why does Hogan insist that you can only buy spice at a corporate grocery store but not at a small business dedicated to spice?  We don’t need 14 days of anything to open these stores up, they should open now.

At this point in the outbreak, a leader dedicated to reopening would also be brutally honest about the consequences of the stay at home orders.  Hogan barely mentions them. Based on what is known now about the virus, if the public balanced current corona risks against the risks of the shutdown, they would demand an immediate, safe opening of all business that can maintain physical distance and/or implement hygiene standards known to stop the spread.  For those who only watch nonstop corona news or avoid all news, let’s hit a few highlights.  Note each item below results in its own cascade of serious additional consequences.  Maryland faces an estimated 2.8 billion shortfall.  Over 30 million unemployed. Loss of life due to delayed health care and suicide. Sharp decline in economic activity and consumer confidence. 401ks in the tank.  A frightening surge in credit card, rent and mortgage defaults. Hotels at 20% capacity if open.  Travel and airline industries crushed. Manufacturing plants shuttered or crippled.  Hospitals hemorrhage cash and lay off tens of thousands jeopardizing our health care industry. Empty storefronts and failed businesses. Restaurants gone. Livestock slaughtered. Troubling international incidents.  Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, plummeted at a 7.6% rate in the first quarter, the most since 1980.  Economy shrank at 4.8% rate in the first quarter.  The reduction in second quarter GDP will likely be staggering. US government set to borrow a record $2.99 trillion in the second quarter. The American dream crushed for many.  The list goes on and on and this is just the beginning.  For those who still claim the demand to reopen is for our convenience you are wrong, it is for our lives, figurative and literal.  

In closing I ask Maryland citizens, does it make sense that a reopen strategy is strongly influenced by what is happening in nursing homes?  Should our reopening be delayed due to outbreaks in highly specialized environments that demand unique safety guidelines?  Should we ignore that the majority of states have begun the process to reopen?  They can’t all be wrong.  Should Hogan have the right to decide which businesses live and which die when either can be safe?  Why should we accept arbitrary edicts that have zero impact on the spread of corona? Does it make sense to delay reopening when commonsense approaches that protect the vulnerable are possible?  Does it make sense to delay when the consequences of doing so present a clear and present danger?  No.  With the curve flattened and hospital capacity sufficient, none of this makes sense which brings me back to the beginning.  Who is in control?  

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  • The photo of the slaughtered pigs was posted on facebook.  I removed the poster’s information for privacy purposes.  The airport photo is DCA.  

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Government Gods

April 28, 2020

By Sue Seboda

Open Letter to Governor Hogan

The purpose of this letter is to outline questions and comments regarding the press conference Friday 4/24/20.  Assertions that small business has been a top priority are called into question by your actions.  If equal weight had been placed on the physical, mental and economic health of all of the citizens, a balanced approach would have been pursued.  Evidence of such an approach would have been the creation of a task force on day 1 that represented the viewpoints of not only epidemiologists and the medical community but also business, banking and mental health.  Instead a lopsided, reactionary strategy based on faulty “science” was implemented leaving immeasurable human and financial destruction in its wake.  

This single focused strategy also gave rise to government gods recklessly choosing who lives and dies, who gets a paycheck and who doesn’t. Home Depot is safe but hundreds of other businesses that could manage 6’ spacing are unsafe?  A hair salon can provide services to an essential person with papers but no one else?  Are essential people and businesses somehow immune from covid-19?  Why are all state employees still receiving paychecks when the state’s income has been decimated?  

Missing from the press conference was any discussion of real data. I presume the team is familiar with the studies emerging that suggest infection is far more widespread resulting in a death rate under 1%?  Or does the team focus more on the attacks leveled at these studies instead of the possibilities they suggest?  Has an attempt been made to estimate the actual death rate considering asymptomatic case rates may be 50% or greater?  Let’s assume the death rate is around 0.6% as some suggest.  Would you have supported a complete destruction of demand if we knew this on March 1?  Doubtful. 

But what is done is done.  How do we move forward and protect the vulnerable from the very infectious covid-19 and the rest of us from the government gods?  I am very happy to hear that business minds have now been added to the team because I fear that if it were left to the medical professionals, stay at home orders would be in place until a vaccine was available.  Can commonsense steps be taken to open many businesses now?  Yes. 

A simple approach would focus on the existing demographic data for deaths and ICU admissions.  As of today there are 929 total deaths in Maryland and 551 patients in ICU.  (For perspective please note that that 50,668 Marylanders died in 2018 from all causes.)  In the press conference we learned a high percentage of these numbers represent nursing home patients.  While these lives are as valuable as any other life, people in nursing homes are not the ones shopping and operating businesses.  What about the workforce?  How many of the deaths were people under 65 without underlying health conditions?  Using percentages from various studies this number is probably between 17 and 42 people out of a population of 6,043,000.  

This data suggests government should stop playing god and immediately allow any business to reopen that can adjust to physical distance guidelines.  Protect the vulnerable and allow everyone else to go back to work.  Each individual chooses.  Anyone uncomfortable leaving the house can remain there.  Open public spaces with physical distance guidelines. Phase in the remaining businesses and events as soon as possible based on real data.  Would infections spike?  Probably.  But once again, what is the hospitalization rate for those under 65 without underlying conditions?  Balance this threat against the devastating impact of staying closed another two weeks.   

Every day matters. Each minute we remain closed, the consequences will pile up exponentially.  All lives matter.  Waiting is disaster.  It is absurd to rely on continued federal bailouts.  It’s time to save ourselves both from the virus and the government’s reaction to it. If we start the process now, we will be one day closer to the oft discussed herd immunity and one day further from toxic herd fear.  

During the press conference, the lack of any attempt to dispel fear was disturbing.  Some would suggest that a healthy level of fear aids the government gods in their ability to control people.   How do I know fear levels are sky high and people’s brains paralyzed?   Simply observe how many people wear a mask when engaged in solitary activities.  The fear will subside, however, as the damage mounts.  There will be serious questions.  Even now folks wonder why you listen to federal guidelines when they don’t make sense.  And if commonsense is absent from Maryland’s strategy, it won’t be long before we wonder why we should listen to you.   

Sincerely,

Sue Seboda

Annapolis, MD 

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