I am vaccinated and theoretically the risk of catching or transmitting covid is infinitesimal, so I do not wear a mask. It’s a simple concept which is why I am befuddled that mine is the only face on display in most establishments. It is understandable that a high risk vaccinated person may choose to continue masking, but everybody?
Today I ventured into a Whole Foods in Montgomery County, MD. I was the lone maskless human, as usual. The store was busy. A rather aggressive woman told me to put on a mask. I stated that the requirement for masks has been lifted plus I was vaccinated. She screeched “I have no idea if you are vaccinated or not”. I asked if Whole Foods’ requires masks even if the County does not. She said yes and that I was wrong, the County does require masks indoors. Hmmm. I put a mask on so I could check out and left the store. Because I am done with this nonsense, I did what I do and verified the facts. Whole Foods follows the local jurisdiction and Mongtomery County had lifted the mask mandate. No mask required.
Work Sue marched back in. The mask police were now at the door and asked me to put a mask on. No. Please? No. I went to customer service where a group of women were standing behind plexiglass and requested to speak to the manager. These poor women almost toppled over themselves backing away from me, the maskless monster. “Mam please, please step away”. Sigh. I waited for the manager. He calmly explained that Montgomery County mask mandate is in place until May 28, 2021 and Whole Foods follows the local jurisdiction. I calmly proved that he was wrong. I also suggested that to get over the Covid nightmare we need to get busy getting over it.
Even if Whole Foods instructs their mask police to stand down, it appears that many vaccinated, low risk folks will continue to mask in this area. Somehow these folks cannot grasp that covid is on the way out and their risk is very low. Sadly government at all levels and their media lapdogs have consistently doled out incomplete and misleading information. Fear blossomed and thinking stopped. The best remedy for these folks is to spend a week enjoying a maskless life and hopefully the spell will be broken.
Update 2.1.22
We have since learned that being vaccinated does not stop the spread of Covid. If it did, Covid would be in the rear view mirror. We have also learned, although many of us were aware of this from the beginning, cloth and surgical masks offer very limited protection against the highly transmissible Omicron. A high risk person in close proximity to others should perhaps consider a well fitted N95 mask. While some debate the effectiveness of even the N95, if my life were on the line, an N95 would be on my face.
In those couple days where it seemed my school may be closed, I felt like a major opportunity was stripped from me and all of the teachers at my school. Teaching is a vocation – not a job – and to be stripped of the opportunity in a time when it is needed most would be quite literally robbing me and others like me one of our rare opportunities to fully realize the purpose of our vocation. More importantly, it would have been robbing our students and families the opportunity to see so tangibly that we will fight for them even in foul weather. Teaching this year, no matter what we do, is going to suck in so many different ways but 5, 10, 20 years from now the kids who grow up will remember what its like for the adults in their lives to actually care. I personally remember very well when my own teachers volunteered to form human shields for us to walk to our cars during the DC sniper situation while many others in different schools complained that they shouldn’t be in school at all. Teaching typically isn’t a life or death profession and for the vast majority of the population, it still isn’t. But even it were – this is the hand we were dealt. Our vocation hasn’t changed just because it suddenly became more dangerous.
OPEN LETTER TO GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN, COUNTY EXECUTIVE MARC ELRICH AND DR TRAVIS GAYLES
I have had the opportunity to read your recent self-congratulatory missives regarding covid management. Several questions came to mind. Are the covid heroes the leaders who use the actual data to open to the maximum extent possible while protecting the vulnerable? The leaders who balance the fatalities and devastation caused by the lockdowns and school closures against covid risks? Or are the heroes the leaders who sit on the sidelines, opening to the minimum extent politically possible, waiting for the science to be determined by others? Those who delegate many of the critical decisions to others who are ill equipped to make these decisions? Those who cater to a fear soaked populace rather than leading them out of fear with facts? As the health, emotional and economic ramifications of the shutdown become clear, comprehensive covid data emerges and state and local budgets collapse, it is my belief that the real heroes will be those leaders who pushed to return their communities to normalcy as soon as possible regardless of the harping criticism from the media.
Evidence of true leadership would be public discussions of the pros and cons at each step, encouraging perspective not fear. Sadly we have seen none of that. Instead we have been served a steady diet of selective aggregate data designed to manipulate. Edicts are always accompanied by the now repellent phrase “based on science”. Which science? For example, the CDC strongly recommended schools open in September due to the increased risk associated with staying closed. Do you disagree with the science outlined by the CDC? Do you agree or disagree that suicides and drug overdoses have eclipsed covid deaths in high school age students? Is your science supplied by the teacher’s union?
Dr. Gayles, yesterday after Governor Hogan thankfully issued an order overriding your closure of MoCo private schools, you stated you had based the decision to close on recent statements by Dr. Birx. Did you accidentally misspeak or assume the citizens were not familiar with the source material? You stated that Dr. Birx suggested that schools should consider staying closed until community transmission has reduced but you failed to mention that the measure of reduced community transmission is a positivity rate under 5%. The positivity rate in MoCo and the State is 2.8% and 4.4%% respectively. The parents of those children who will OD or commit suicide as a result of your decision demand the real reason. All parents should revolt against the County’s incredible abuse of power regarding school closures and demand the State force the County to also open public schools.
With a virus as contagious as covid, everyone knew that cases would surge upon increased testing and relaxation of lockdowns. Why are you acting so surprised? Remember the original goal was to flatten the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed? Are you really so arrogant that you believe you can eliminate this virus with continued closures, roving bands of enforcers and enhanced mask guidelines in the absence of herd immunity achieved naturally or from a vaccine? Meanwhile you freely admit that the greatest transmission occurs at family and other private gatherings, things which you cannot control. Does anybody else see the flaw in governance? Ineffective overreach where covid does not spread easily and lack of personal responsibility where it does. It’s time we learn how to live with covid and protect ourselves.
Government can assist individuals assume responsibility through honest conversation on risk and avoidance strategies, not fear tactics and obvious manipulation supported by the media. As we have discovered, the citizens are likely to throw the baby out with the bath water when leaders engage in hypocritical behavior or when their motives are questionable. There have been countless examples of covid hypocrisy on the national and local stage. The latest national example is the attendance at John Lewis’s funeral which far exceeded 1 person or household per 200 sf. Which science on gatherings do you believe Mr. Elrich? Locally and nationally the politicians’ pandering response to the protests undermined everything they said subsequently. And the height of hypocrisy was the determination of what businesses and employees were essential and which were not. Who takes a hypocrite seriously? Nobody. It is never too late to be honest with the people, show respect for their intelligence and proceed to Phase 3. That is the only way we will be “in this together”.
MoCo does not have the data to evaluate risk effectively and the data they do have supports following the State’s guidelines. For example, many of the new cases are among young people. I asked MoCo what the hospitalization rate is by age. Because this is essential data to craft covid policy, I was shocked to learn MoCo does not have this data. People wait in food lines yet County decides to implement more stringent lockdowns than the State? Why? Is this public policy based on feelings or fact? Let’s review the data.
State positivity trended downward after going to Phase 2 in early June and has been reasonably consistent since mid-June. As of today, August 4, 2020, the positivity ratio is 4.44% at the State level and 2.82% in MoCo.
Even though case numbers have increased, daily fatalities have remained low and consistent since early July. Since transition to Phase 2, 83% of the folks in the State who have sadly died are over 60. This percentage is consistent with death rates throughout the pandemic.
While hospitalizations have increased slightly, ICU occupancy has remained relatively consistent since early July. Prior to early July, ICU usage was downtrending.
Approximately 60% of deaths in both the State and MoCo have occurred in nursing homes.
1.51% of Maryland residents have a confirmed positive test and 0.055% have died from covid. 1.68% of MoCo residents have a confirmed positive test and 0.071% have died from the disease. Data suggests that approximately 0.014% of folks 64 and under in Maryland have died from covid and 0.015% in MoCo. Does the media or any government official ever provide these numbers?
In summary, we should proceed to Phase 3, open public and private schools safely and assume personal responsibility for our own health. Anything else amounts to continued government malfeasance. If masks, physical distance and good hygiene are effective, there should be no impediment to fully opening. Each individual manages their own risk and elects whether to engage in an activity or not. As the courts ruled in Ohio, it is the consumer’s responsibility to decide whether to patronize an establishment, not the government’s. If young people, who since time immemorial believe they are invincible, ignore the edicts and catch covid, the risk of serious illness in this group is extremely low. Safety in multigenerational households will require more effort but it is those individuals’ responsibility to manage their households, not society at large. Vulnerable nursing home patients should continue to be protected and other at-risk individuals must remain vigilant. All counties should follow the State except in the case of an extreme local outbreak that overburdens the hospital system. Yes, some of us will still catch covid. We take risks every day. Open fully.
Dear County Executive Elrich, Members of the County Council and Dr. Travis Gayles:
Balancing the impacts from a highly contagious virus and the shutdown is a difficult task and we appreciate your efforts to do so. While I understand the council’s primary goal is to save lives from covid unfortunately the decision to prolong the shutdown will put other lives at risk. While a letter could be devoted entirely to the negative impacts of the shutdowns (one of which is attached for your reference) suffice it to say that many people and businesses are seriously suffering. The data suggests that a balanced, targeted approach is possible.
During the press conference Wednesday, Mr. Elrich said his top two metrics for lifting the stay at home orders were total case numbers and ICU utilization rates. Mr. Elrich suggested that death rates are not going to be changed much by testing and contact tracing. He also stated that death rates are the hardest numbers to change. How can any metric have a higher priority than who dies from the disease? Does this suggest Mr. Elrich believes that regardless of what we do, the vulnerable will die from covid? Eventually we will all die of something, but a targeted approach can help protect the vulnerable from dying of covid and allow the rest of us to get back to work.
Who is at the greatest risk of dying from covid and might benefit the most from an effort to lower death rates? Nursing home patients. This group comprises 74% of the 465 total deaths in the county. But please also note that 85% of all deaths are folks over 65. Who has a low risk of dying from the disease? People under 65 especially those without underlying health conditions. Only 0.007% of county citizens under 65 have died from covid with or without underlying health conditions. What other name does this low risk group go by? The workforce.
Only total case and death numbers are provided in the dashboard which is not helpful for understanding risk or evaluating a targeted strategy. Deaths of nursing home patients and those over 65 with serious underlying conditions should be eliminated from any trends that will impact the decision to reopen. While the lives of nursing home patients are as important as any other life, these folks are not the ones who are shopping and operating businesses. Plus nursing homes are highly specialized environments that are not found in general office and retail. If it is not possible to segregate the data this way, please add charts to the dashboard for under and over 65 daily fatality rates and you will find as I did with Maryland data that the trend has been flat for over a month.
Data charts that only include nursing home stats should also be created to guide decisions and strategies to protect patients and staff. This segregated information will also allow the citizens and county to monitor results.
Hospitalizations are a key metric. The dashboard states that in order to reopen we must achieve 14 days of acute bed utilization rate of 70% or less of the total number of acute beds. We have had 0 days under 70% for acute beds. Are we to assume that if nothing changes we will have at least 14 more days before we can reopen? Please note that the top utilization rate for both covid and noncovid patients was 83% and only 6 days since April 30 have been over 80%. In other words, we have been able to accommodate all patients since the beginning of the pandemic with beds to spare.
Only a notable spike would cause a shortage of acute care and ICU beds. If a spike were to occur, when would that be? Well after reopening. Therefore waiting another 14 days to reopen achieves nothing but negative health, emotional and financial impacts to the citizens. Rather than passively watching the numbers, is there an approach that balances the needs of all of the citizens utilizing advance planning? For example, is it possible to transfer patients between hospitals to balance the load or develop a plan to increase beds immediately in the event of a spike?
Antibody testing and other situations such as the aircraft carrier Roosevelt suggest as many as 50% of covid positive people could be asymptomatic and far more of the population has been infected than indicated by current testing. This suggests that increased testing will result in increased cases for some undetermined period of time. While I completely support the County’s new programs to increase testing, even if 5% of the population is tested monthly, many folks could still be walking around unaware they have covid. The only way to manage that is through physical distance, good hygiene and masks when within 6’ of another. Why should small businesses be held hostage while testing ramps up when the same avoidance practices must be instituted regardless? Considering that county essential workers are not required to quarantine when they have been exposed to covid, the health department must have high confidence that these practices will stop the spread. Let’s extend this confidence to the entire workforce and reignite demand in the county.
The statement in the meeting Wednesday that when stay at home orders are lifted, the county might only allow stores to do curbside pickup was extremely troubling. Certainly all the members of the council have noticed that people are not staying home. They are out shopping in big box stores. Does science dictate that we are only safe in big corporate retail and at greater risk in small independent stores? No. Science does tell us how to stop the spread and small business owners are very capable of maintaining physical distance and instituting appropriate hygiene standards. Therefore, why should government officials decide which businesses live and which die? The County should stop giving big box retailers a crushing advantage over our small businesses and open fully.
Every day matters. Each minute we remain closed, the consequences will pile up exponentially from deferred medical treatments, unemployment and financial devastation. Suicide rates have increased as has substance abuse, physical abuse and depression. The fact that we now have food lines in the county speaks volumes. Small businesses are genuinely suffering which will have its own long term health impacts. Many businesses will not survive. Has the county examined what will happen to its tax base if small business is decimated?
Regardless of the council’s good intentions, continued stay at home orders will not deliver us from covid. We implore the council to proactively balance the needs of all the citizens and implement a targeted approach that protects the vulnerable and allows the healthy to assume personal responsibility and get back to work. Any business that can maintain physical distance guidelines should be allowed to open fully. The data supports that action and the new guidance from the CDC regarding the transmission of the virus should give all of us more confidence to move forward. And finally, please obtain input from the people of the community who will explain how both covid and the shutdown have impacted their lives and livelihood.
